99% of retail traders in crypto are gamblers

If you don’t have a trading model with a statistical edge that you have stress tested with enough data points, you are just a gambler. Gamblers always lose in the long run but may get lucky in the short run. The longer they play, the more certain they are of losing money.

The House = Exchanges, Traders with an edge, Youtubers, Affiliate Marketers, Educators, and other people who maintain the trading infrastructure.

The Gamblers = 99% of retail.

If you don’t have an edge that you have back-tested and forward-tested with enough data points, in the long run you will lose money. That’s guaranteed. Let nobody lie to you that trading is easy because its not. But youtubers, affiliate marketers, and educators must tell you that to make money. Most of them aren’t professional traders themselves.

So you have a whole bunch of morons, who genuinely believe that trading is simply clicking buy and sell and waiting for the money to roll in after attending a one-month course. The affiliate marketers collect their cut from exchanges for introducing the idiots to the platform, educators sell courses and get their cut, youtubers get ad revenue, and the cycle continues. All these people get paid to peddle the narrative that you can learn how to trade in a few days/weeks using some elementary level strategy that lags.

Sorry guys. Crypto and any market for that matter, is not the road to great riches if you don’t put in those 10,000 hours of work to become competent. It’s not different from taking a course in medicine or engineering.

I’m going to give you guys some free game. Join the “house” side in one way or another. You don’t have to be a trader to profit. Teach, broadcast, or market if you can’t trade.

Enda nyonya mboro, bro!!!

:D:D:D:D:D

Wealthiest people in crypto (billionaires)

CZ - Binance - $65 billion
Sam Bankman-Fried - FTX - $24 billion
Brian Armstrong - Coinbase - $6.6 billion
Gary Wang - FTX - $5.9 billion
Son Chi-Hyung - Upbit - $3.7 billion

The list goes on. The house always wins.

Najua ulikuwa umepanga kukafunga na crypto. Pole gathee. Enda mjengo kabla fundi akasirike.

strategy is just a fancy name for gambling, refer to Gamestop traders come along. hahaha

LOL, the number of self-proclaimed crypto traders who have had to resort to teaching after eating losses is so damn high. Naona Azor Ahai youtube channel italaunch hivi karibuni. The only winning move for retail is:

  1. Invest big amounts so that even smaller gains are good enough
  2. Have other sources of income that can enable you to actually buy and hold without having to do an emergency sale to pay bills
  1. That’s exactly how people lose large amounts. Never try that.

  2. Wrong. Buying and holding is not a strategy. If you buy and hold crap, it will be worse crap in 5 years. The timeline doesn’t matter if you don’t have an edge. During the dot com bubble, bonobos bought pets.com and other shiet tech stocks - where are they today?

The smartest advice I would give to a retail trader without an edge is not to participate directly. Teach, sell courses, get into affiliate marketing etc. If you participate in any way, you will find guys like me who have an edge and will take your money all day.

Boss…with all due respect…withdraw your statements.
Azor is 100% right…enlighten yourself before dipping your toe.

so what is your edge?

That’s like asking a surgeon to teach you how to remove tumors.

Sio kama driving ama computer packages ati unaweza funzwa na wiki mbili.

The first mistake people make, like you just did, is assuming that trading can be taught casually. I can’t teach you 5+ years experience.

Ukianza kusoma na kupractice leo, maybe by 2027 utajua chenye najua leo. Obviously, if you are a genius you can take half the time e.g 2.5 years, and if otherwise it can take your entire lifetime.

To put things into perspective, the probability of graduating from med school is 80%. The probability of becoming a career trader is 3.5%.

The crash was needed to weed out all those fake crypto gurus with shitcoins. Everyday new coins were coming up via binance token generator.

I must be among the 99%. Nimeumia kama fakin. But again i played with something i could afford to loose. I haven’t sold. I will hold till the bull run. Crypto has a cycle. It will come back up.

Hakuna experts Kwa crypto ata AI algorithms hazewi kupa real predictions.

Nilikua nimeandika paragraph but wacha tu nidelete, I enjoy watching the show from the sidelines.
I like BitCoin. I like its fundamentals. I like the liberal idea behind it. I like the potential it has not just for speculators, but as an actual medium of exchange.
As for trading, I washed my hands, accepted I can’t overcome my trading handicap and chose to watch from the sidelines.

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:meffi::meffi::meffi::meffi::meffi:

Read the story of renaissance technologies and their flagship Medallion Fund.

Kuna experts and they have the money to show it. They are already billionaires and multimillionaires.

Ama you think Citadel used $100M to develop the ABC trading strategy ya kupoteza pesa?

Some countable people have an edge, and the vast majority don’t.

So are you a billionaire or multimillionaire ama you are a minority among the countable people with an edge?

There’s nothing new in trading crypto. You use strategies similar to trading stocks. Most people will lose simply because they lack discipline. First one is to use money that you don’t need. Even to develop a strategy, you have to lose money. And there’s no strategy that works permanently. They all start to lose after some time.

I disagree. Trading stocks and trading bitcoin is very different. If I want to buy a company stock, I can gather most of the financial information, market information and general company information. You can make more or less make somewhat educated predictions / guesses about the future performance of that stock.
Bitcoin is not a company somewhere with a C.E.O. that you can research about, nor does it release its own market forecasts that you can compare to yours. It’s also virgin territory, so you can’t draw from the past to learn more. It’s just a different animal altogether.

Depends on what type of trading. If your day trading and swing trading it’s mostly the same. Price action doesn’t change much across asset classes.