The end is nigh, so it seems. Everywhere we look, the vehicular future is decidedly electric. VW group has already announced that all new models from 2020 will be fully electric. Tesla is leading the charge in the US, with Nissan hard at work making the electric equivalent of Japanese cheap econoboxes with the Nissan Leaf. China is already the biggest market for electric cars and has set ambitious goals to be fully electric by 2030. Kenya’s automotive future will surely be shaped by these advances in the developed world. But the question for the “auto-mobile” Kenyan is how will all these affect him?
Fate has bequeathed us an opportunity to lead the (dark) continent into the bright future of electric auto-motion but only if we don’t make a mess of it, as we do most affairs of national importance. We have diligently worked over the years to grow our energy production whilst making the shift to green energy. Kenya possibly has the most enviable mix of sustainable energy on the continent, even beating economic stalwart, South Africa. With a surplus installed capacity of 849MW, we can safely agree that there is sufficient electricity to power Electric Vehicles(EV). But what about the infrastructure, I hear naysayers ask?
The continuous modernisation of the transmission system has made power supply more reliable. Home charging, albeit slow is now very much possible with current EV cars taking up to 8hrs to fully charge up. As we plug in our phones overnight to charge, so can we, our Electric Vehicles. With our new found obsession of malls and public social spaces in urban areas, superchargers have a home for the urban middle class family sporting their newest Electric Vehicle. While the West had to create payment systems for electric superchargers in public places, we already have this in place – Kenya Power token system! Easily repurposed to accept tokens punched into the keypad and dispense power for as long as the electric charger is connected. Kenya Power would maintain your token balance remotely, allowing you use of the same token number between multiple charging stations until credit depletion.
But it’s not all happy sailing though as with the current battery technology, I foresee a drawback with battery life. Unless current government policy changes significantly, the regular Joe is relegated to a punishing import duty regime that discourages new vehicles in favour of older ones. At a maximum import age limit of 8 years, Electric Vehicles will already be well past their prime battery lives and onto the accelerated degradation that follows. Battery replacements are also not cheap either, with the best deal for the Nissan Leaf already hitting the $5,000 price tag, less fitment; and only as part exchange for your already worn out unit. Factor in the cost of shipping out the depleted unit for the fresh refurbished one, duty & taxes and the restriction on flying Lithium batteries post-9/11 and we’re in a palaver. Unless the government is willing to offer incentives for battery shipments and waive duty and taxes, we’re stuck in a rut on this. For the discerning reader, he has already figured the better way is to simply forego duty on new Electric Vehicles. But Kenya Revenue Authority mandarins already have their monkey hands deep in the cookie jar – goodluck changing that government policy!
Sticking with the theme of used, hand me down EVs, the question of maintenance eventually creeps in. No, we DO NOT need to train a whole generation of EV technicians(yes, there is a difference from mechanics). Similarly to how the current modern vehicle maintenance industry has shifted in favour of highly educated, young individuals who can handle a computer, diagnose a vehicle fault and read a service manual, so will the EV technician of the future. I foresee the armies of Electrical graduate Engineers who moonlight as household electricians rehatting to service your stalled EV when no one else can tell the difference between a dying battery cell and blown AC/DC bridge. The future is theirs and so is the bacon that comes with it.
In closing, Kenya is very much ready for the future of EV. The components are already in place, we just need to re-organise for it and pray that government bureaucrats and political autocrats can spare a minute in their busy self-serving schedule to do the right thing and shape policy for the future; the enterprising commoner will do the rest.