Beating the bookies with their own numbers

[system]

Now, I have never bet in my life, and wouldn’t want to start. Due to curiosity about whether there is an optimal betting strategy I came across this paper by Kaunitz, Zhong, and Kreiner ( https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.02824 ) titled Beating the bookies with their own numbers - and how the online sports betting market is rigged.

The paper basically argues that most betting strategies aim at beating bookies at prediction, something that they are very good at.

A “fair bet” is described as a zero-sum: the total payout for winnings equals the total money placed on bets, leaving the bookie with nothing. However, in real life we see that the bookie always makes away with most of the money placed on bets, because he has priced his odds to maximise his gains.

Starting from the argument that bookies are already too good at prediction to defeat, the authors propose a strategy which aims to find a bet that is ‘mispriced’ in favour of bettors.

This mispricing usually comes about when a bookie posts higher odds for a certain outcome to encourage people to bet on it and reduce his exposure in case many bettors win.

Nimejaribu summary ya vile nimeelewa hiyo paper. A disclaimer: this is NOT a way to win bets consistently. No one can do that 100%. However, by exploiting mispriced bets, you can have an overall profit margin in your bets.

The bets and analysis they did is linked in the paper, plus their tool that they made to scour the bookies’ websites and place bets. Hizo sijaangalia lakini, kama mtu ako curious na anajua statistics na programming kazi kwako.

Apparently after employing their strategy some bookies began to severely restrict their bets or ban them altogether. What I gathered from them is that if you have been betting for many years, chances are you have been losing money on average. If you win too much they begin restricting you because of course they have all the analytic tools. Unless kuna mtu hufanya self audit of bets.

So the strategy?

1. Assume the bookies already have a good idea of odds of something occurring. Therefore for any outcome you want to bet on, find as many bookies as possible (3 and above, say SportPesa, Betin, and Betway) offering the bet, and find the average of the odds. Like for instance kama ni home win angalia hizo zote and find the average for that home win across bookies.

2. The consensus probability of an outcome is the reciprocal of the average found in 1 above. This is the figure that bookies generally have agreed is the probability. So of course low odds implies higher probability.

3. Take the figure in 2 above and subtract 0.05. This is the average intercept of the regression line of the probability above. The authors found it was the optimal figure that gave you the most games to bet on.

4. Find the reciprocal of 3 above.

5. Only place bets where the odds offered by a bookie are greater than 4 above.

Example:

Today I see kuna Schalke v. Freiburg, with the following odds:

                      1               X              2   

SportPesa 1.93 3.38. 4.29
Betin 1.85 3.40 4.65
1XBet 1.93 3.44 4.68
BetWay 1.89 3.43 4.37

1.For that home win, average is (1.93+1.85+1.93+1.89)/4 = 1.9
2.The consensus odds are the reciprocal 1/1.9 = 0.5263…
(i.e. the bookies on average think there’s a 52% chance of a home win).
3. Subtract the intercept of 0.05. (Their models showed it to be the optimal figure though it varies). So we get 0.4763…
4. Find reciprocal 1/0.4763…= 2.099

From the above, no bet in the list is overpriced. That’s why it’s better to check across many bookies, as you’ll very likely find one.

The best results were achieved using the closing bets, i.e. as close to the match as possible. Why? Bookies change odds based on how people are betting. They may for instance increase an odd for a team to win if too many people bet otherwise, so as to minimise his exposure in case the match goes as per what people expect.

(Typing on mobile is a bitch, I hope at least one of you reads all this crap I’ve written :D:D)

Guinea pigs hebu jaribuni hii mtuletee results.

[digi]

@Alpha Canis Majoris

Now, I have never bet in my life, and wouldn’t want to start. Due to curiosity about whether there is an optimal betting strategy I came across this paper by Kaunitz, Zhong, and Kreiner ( https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.02824 ) titled Beating the bookies with their own numbers - and how the online sports betting market is rigged.

The paper basically argues that most betting strategies aim at beating bookies at prediction, something that they are very good at.

A “fair bet” is described as a zero-sum: the total payout for winnings equals the total money placed on bets, leaving the bookie with nothing. However, in real life we see that the bookie always makes away with most of the money placed on bets, because he has priced his odds to maximise his gains.

Starting from the argument that bookies are already too good at prediction to defeat, the authors propose a strategy which aims to find a bet that is ‘mispriced’ in favour of bettors.

This mispricing usually comes about when a bookie posts higher odds for a certain outcome to encourage people to bet on it and reduce his exposure in case many bettors win.

Nimejaribu summary ya vile nimeelewa hiyo paper. A disclaimer: this is NOT a way to win bets consistently. No one can do that 100%. However, by exploiting mispriced bets, you can have an overall profit margin in your bets.

The bets and analysis they did is linked in the paper, plus their tool that they made to scour the bookies’ websites and place bets. Hizo sijaangalia lakini, kama mtu ako curious na anajua statistics na programming kazi kwako.

Apparently after employing their strategy some bookies began to severely restrict their bets or ban them altogether. What I gathered from them is that if you have been betting for many years, chances are you have been losing money on average. If you win too much they begin restricting you because of course they have all the analytic tools. Unless kuna mtu hufanya self audit of bets.

So the strategy?

1. Assume the bookies already have a good idea of odds of something occurring. Therefore for any outcome you want to bet on, find as many bookies as possible (3 and above, say SportPesa, Betin, and Betway) offering the bet, and find the average of the odds. Like for instance kama ni home win angalia hizo zote and find the average for that home win across bookies.

2. The consensus probability of an outcome is the reciprocal of the average found in 1 above. This is the figure that bookies generally have agreed is the probability. So of course low odds implies higher probability.

3. Take the figure in 2 above and subtract 0.05. This is the average intercept of the regression line of the probability above. The authors found it was the optimal figure that gave you the most games to bet on.

4. Find the reciprocal of 3 above.

5. Only place bets where the odds offered by a bookie are greater than 4 above.

Example:

Today I see kuna Schalke v. Freiburg, with the following odds:

                      1               X              2  

SportPesa 1.93 3.38. 4.29
Betin 1.85 3.40 4.65
1XBet 1.93 3.44 4.68
BetWay 1.89 3.43 4.37

1.For that home win, average is (1.93+1.85+1.93+1.89)/4 = 1.9
2.The consensus odds are the reciprocal 1/1.9 = 0.5263…
(i.e. the bookies on average think there’s a 52% chance of a home win).
3. Subtract the intercept of 0.05. (Their models showed it to be the optimal figure though it varies). So we get 0.4763…
4. Find reciprocal 1/0.4763…= 2.099

From the above, no bet in the list is overpriced. That’s why it’s better to check across many bookies, as you’ll very likely find one.

The best results were achieved using the closing bets, i.e. as close to the match as possible. Why? Bookies change odds based on how people are betting. They may for instance increase an odd for a team to win if too many people bet otherwise, so as to minimise his exposure in case the match goes as per what people expect.

(Typing on mobile is a bitch, I hope at least one of you reads all this crap I’ve written :D:D)

Guinea pigs hebu jaribuni hii mtuletee results.

Seems cooked up

[captain_obvious]

Sijasoma, lakini what I can say is, hata usijaribu. Betting companies have billions to invest in algorithms that ensure they always make a profit, whatever the circumstances. Wewe na hiyo akili yako ndogo huwezi shindana na algorithm kufikiria.
In short, the house always wins.

[cortedivoire]

[ATTACH=full]225311[/ATTACH]

[system]

@captain obvious

Sijasoma, lakini what I can say is, hata usijaribu. Betting companies have billions to invest in algorithms that ensure they always make a profit, whatever the circumstances. Wewe na hiyo akili yako ndogo huwezi shindana na algorithm kufikiria.
In short, the house always wins.

Exactly what the authors are saying. Your best bet is to scour for overpriced odds, not to try and determine them for yourself because you cannot compete with their computers. Kama hiyo nimefanya hapo juu you shouldn’t bet.

Personally I have never and will probably never bet.

[Pseudo]

@captain obvious

Sijasoma, lakini what I can say is, hata usijaribu. Betting companies have billions to invest in algorithms that ensure they always make a profit, whatever the circumstances. Wewe na hiyo akili yako ndogo huwezi shindana na algorithm kufikiria.
In short, the house always wins.

:D:D

[MikeOck]

Use odds comparison sites like https://ke.oddscracker.com to spot pricing discrepancies easily. They only come once in a blue moon, hence you need to strike hard when you see them

[Koolibah]

Don’t compete with a betting company on predicting they will beat you at it. Bet against the company I.e focus on the odds not the prediction

[Nattydread]

All this because some people believe in get-rich-quick juju?

[MarkMarco]

@Alpha Canis Majoris

Now, I have never bet in my life, and wouldn’t want to start. Due to curiosity about whether there is an optimal betting strategy I came across this paper by Kaunitz, Zhong, and Kreiner ( https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.02824 ) titled Beating the bookies with their own numbers - and how the online sports betting market is rigged.

The paper basically argues that most betting strategies aim at beating bookies at prediction, something that they are very good at.

A “fair bet” is described as a zero-sum: the total payout for winnings equals the total money placed on bets, leaving the bookie with nothing. However, in real life we see that the bookie always makes away with most of the money placed on bets, because he has priced his odds to maximise his gains.

Starting from the argument that bookies are already too good at prediction to defeat, the authors propose a strategy which aims to find a bet that is ‘mispriced’ in favour of bettors.

This mispricing usually comes about when a bookie posts higher odds for a certain outcome to encourage people to bet on it and reduce his exposure in case many bettors win.

Nimejaribu summary ya vile nimeelewa hiyo paper. A disclaimer: this is NOT a way to win bets consistently. No one can do that 100%. However, by exploiting mispriced bets, you can have an overall profit margin in your bets.

The bets and analysis they did is linked in the paper, plus their tool that they made to scour the bookies’ websites and place bets. Hizo sijaangalia lakini, kama mtu ako curious na anajua statistics na programming kazi kwako.

Apparently after employing their strategy some bookies began to severely restrict their bets or ban them altogether. What I gathered from them is that if you have been betting for many years, chances are you have been losing money on average. If you win too much they begin restricting you because of course they have all the analytic tools. Unless kuna mtu hufanya self audit of bets.

So the strategy?

1. Assume the bookies already have a good idea of odds of something occurring. Therefore for any outcome you want to bet on, find as many bookies as possible (3 and above, say SportPesa, Betin, and Betway) offering the bet, and find the average of the odds. Like for instance kama ni home win angalia hizo zote and find the average for that home win across bookies.

2. The consensus probability of an outcome is the reciprocal of the average found in 1 above. This is the figure that bookies generally have agreed is the probability. So of course low odds implies higher probability.

3. Take the figure in 2 above and subtract 0.05. This is the average intercept of the regression line of the probability above. The authors found it was the optimal figure that gave you the most games to bet on.

4. Find the reciprocal of 3 above.

5. Only place bets where the odds offered by a bookie are greater than 4 above.

Example:

Today I see kuna Schalke v. Freiburg, with the following odds:

                      1               X              2  

SportPesa 1.93 3.38. 4.29
Betin 1.85 3.40 4.65
1XBet 1.93 3.44 4.68
BetWay 1.89 3.43 4.37

1.For that home win, average is (1.93+1.85+1.93+1.89)/4 = 1.9
2.The consensus odds are the reciprocal 1/1.9 = 0.5263…
(i.e. the bookies on average think there’s a 52% chance of a home win).
3. Subtract the intercept of 0.05. (Their models showed it to be the optimal figure though it varies). So we get 0.4763…
4. Find reciprocal 1/0.4763…= 2.099

From the above, no bet in the list is overpriced. That’s why it’s better to check across many bookies, as you’ll very likely find one.

The best results were achieved using the closing bets, i.e. as close to the match as possible. Why? Bookies change odds based on how people are betting. They may for instance increase an odd for a team to win if too many people bet otherwise, so as to minimise his exposure in case the match goes as per what people expect.

(Typing on mobile is a bitch, I hope at least one of you reads all this crap I’ve written :D:D)

Guinea pigs hebu jaribuni hii mtuletee results.

Hapo naamini. But my money I invested in one algo. Hi story ya bigdata. Anyway Sina results Hadi leo. Best thing Ni kuanalyse for fun without betting. I do that allot, for kuekelea pesa tulisema tutumie mathe pale home aende chama so siekeleagi. Nice read

[Kupata]

Arbitrage betting and Sports trading is real with a high return if done correctly.
Many gambling youths have lost a huge fortune trying to predict outcomes. The house always win.
To make money in betting , you have to learn Arbitrage betting, sports trading , money management and Patience.
Successful gamblers are rare and don’t advertise themselves for fear of being restricted and blacklisted by betting companies. Personal I make at least $50 a day. I have all the evidence to back up this.
If you are tired of losing and interested to learn what I do, follow the link below or contact me on Facebook (username - Keinstein jdm)
https://chat.whatsapp.com/GIqJuLcgwbMFpXcD0IkCEo

[system]

@Koolibah

Don’t compete with a betting company on predicting they will beat you at it. Bet against the company I.e focus on the odds not the prediction

The only way to beat betting company is to not play

[sani]

TGP group are the real owners. Pevans does marketing work.

[EvelinaMoon]

hello, but where could I make bets online in Kenya? I would like to start betting, but I would like to know where it’s better to start…

[digi]

@EvelinaMoon

hello, but where could I make bets online in Kenya? I would like to start betting, but I would like to know where it’s better to start…

Join NVchieth group to get tips

[liubimkaMoya]

there is a tactics of multibet where is no chances to lose, however, te main question is to find a betting site that would allow make multibets…

[denis_young]

The easiest way to score is just bet on other markets. Corners and goal kicks are my favorite. Here is an example I took advantage of. Walibeba bulgaria ufala but this are internationals.

[ATTACH=full]259908[/ATTACH]

[melvo]

Nice quality post with an example.

[Yeagoduke]

there is a tactics of multibet where is no chances to lose, however, te main question is to find a betting site that would allow make multibets…

hey, buddy, there is a single popular betting site in Kenya, and you can check this out [COLOR=“BLACK”]http://22bet.co.ke. To be honest, this betting site is enough to please all needs of any gambler, as there is a wide variety of sports you can bet, a lot of bonuses, weekly promotions and many other. Frankly speaking, I’ve been betting on that site for 2 years, and I’ve never had problems with withdrawal of money. By the way, betting on that site it’s enough to guess a single outcome of a game in order to get a lot… For example, when I made a bet of $ 700, I was able to win $3500 that is much higher than my monthly salary… (Personally, I practised multibet on that betting site and it was my main strategy)

[system]

@Yeagoduke

hey, buddy, there is a single popular betting site in Kenya, and you can check this out http://22bet.co.ke. To be honest, this betting site is enough to please all needs of any gambler, as there is a wide variety of sports you can bet, a lot of bonuses, weekly promotions and many other. Frankly speaking, I’ve been betting on that site for 2 years, and I’ve never had problems with withdrawal of money. By the way, betting on that site it’s enough to guess a single outcome of a game in order to get a lot… For example, when I made a bet of $ 700, I was able to win $3500 that is much higher than my monthly salary… (Personally, I practised multibet on that betting site and it was my main strategy)

this betting is so popular that even my mom knows about this betting site (lol, of course it’s joke, but in fact, almost all my friends make bets with the help of this site)