charity sweepstakes

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Ingia

Village Elder
#6
CHANCES OF WINNING IN A SIMPLE LOTTERY SYSTEM
If 1 million people are competing for the same prize, the chances that you will win are 0.000001 for an ideal system. Or 0.000001 * 1/1000 for example, to account for bias in the lottery system, which is always there, if the bias doesnt favour you. S0 that is 0.000000001. The chance of you winning the gift is one in a billion. if the bias favours you, then 0.000001 * 1000=0.001. one in a thousand. In between is your range, the exact probability depending on the degree of bias.

If the probability is one in a million, and you buy tickets a million times and each time waiting for results, you are almost sure to win once. Whether its the first ticket or the millionth ticket that hits the jackpot nobady knows; the point at which you win is totally random. if you buy several tickets for a single process, multiply probability by the number of tickets. You must assume all other people must buy one ticket. If others buy many tickets, your chances are much slimmer.

Some lotteries such as sweepstake can be a little more complex but probabilities are still that low/or high depending on how you see it.

Approximations in probability always work to some reliable extent.

And its addictive man. Its gambling in the most blatant way.
 
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