Delus Analytics presents : Why Uhuru will still win and UOTP will go drying

Delus

Village Elder
#1
Nimeona UOTP wakisema they gave the numbers nikashangaa sana. I have analyzed the 2013 and 2017 presidential elections.

KEY FINDINGS

1. The voting pattern in the counties remained the same except for
  • Garissa - Uhuru Kenyatta won in 2017 as compared to Raila's win in 2013. The margin was 427 votes as compared to 2013 where Raila won with a margin of 3052 votes. Governor of Jubilee also won(ALI BUNOW KORANE )
  • Marsabit - This was a shocker. In 2013, Raila won with a margin of 1437 votes but alas in 2017 Uhuru won with a difference of 76,693 votes. Could it be because of the Badassa Dam project? Governor of Jubilee won (MOHAMUD MOHAMED ALI)
  • Samburu - Raila won in 2013 with a margin of 9001 which was overturned to uhuru's win by 131 votes.
  • Narok - raila (2013 win ) - margin of 9210; uhuru (2017 win) - margin - 20016 votes2
2. Voter Turnout declined allover the country with the sharpest decline in Nyanza from 89% in '13 to 78% in '17. Coast area maintained the lowest voter turnout with 70% and 65% respectively while Central mainatained the highest turnout with 92% and 86% respectively.

3. Alliances: The rift Valley bloc delivered 2,758,969 votes for Uhuru. The luhya votes and ukambani vote delivered 2,273,256 votes for Raila Odinga. The effect was Isaac ruto was unfelt in Nasa as his county Bomet gave Raila a meagre 31,822 votes. In Machakos, Uhuru made a massive gain of 46,969 votes from '13 election which can be said to be worth something in the opponents stronghold. In Bungoma and Kakamega, alliances were able to bring in a gain 134,417 votes for Uhuru. In Kisii and Nyamira county, Uhuru enjoyed an extra 131,054 votes from his '13 tally whereas Raila lost 40,039 votes in the same region but maintained the popular vote.

4. Strongholds (Hometown): Central area delivered 2,384,491 votes to Uhuru whereas Nyanza had 1,738,569 votes. The difference between this 2 strongholds stands at 645,922. Both candidates performed dismally in their opponents stronghold. Raila managed 88453 votes in Central and Uhuru 338,698 in Nyanza(Kisii factor)

5. Overall: Uhuru made an overall gain of 2,029,857 votes and Raila 1,421,678 votes. Uhuru top 5 gains were in Kiambu, Nakuru, Nairobi, Meru and Muranga County. Raila's top 5 gains were in Kakamega, Nairobi, Vihiga, Bungoma and Homabay County.

CONCLUSION

Isaac Ruto has no benefit to Jubilee. His move is a matter of self preservation.

The strong voting bloc of Rift Valley and Central - 5,143,460 votes swallows up Nyanza, Western, Eastern and Coast which have 4,812,856 votes leaving the North Eastern bloc with registered voters of 501,912 to be termed as a battlegound.

Kisii votes: Even though Uhuru managed to get 28% of the Kisii vote, he won in 2013. In 2017, he got 48%. This would imply that Jubilee are only courting the Kisii to avoid a runoff scenario.

Luhya votes : The same applies to the Luhya. Their votes are key to avoiding runoff.

N.E votes: The county gave Uhuru the popular vote in '13 and '17. i expect the same.

Coast continues to disappoint Raila. With a vote basket of 1.7 million voters and a 65% turnout, Raila has not been able to get the most out of this county.

Therefore, my UOTP friends- numbers never lie. The only way Raila can win the elections is if Coast na region zao zote zikuwe na turnout ya 95% and above while Uhuru maintains which is impossible.

Attached are the analysis of the results for UOTP to see!
PS:
Natafuta internship ya 3 months.
Bachelor of Commerce.
Ahsande.
 

Attachments

Delus

Village Elder
#6
how can you compare with two results which are cooked?
Leta analysis ya UOTP tuone
Tufanyie analysis yako sasa how you are planning to eradicate poverty in your life.
Because yenye umefanya ni ya how the rich will continue being richer.
:D:Dcheza chini
too close to call now, my guess is the kisiis, kambas, maasais n luhyas will give rao more votes this time than on 8th
Kisiis, luhyas and kambas hakuna shida. The maasais would be a concern since ni rift valley vote
 
#9
Ndii, a whole scholar, gave Babuons 2017 figures and Uhuru actually came out tops.
Those are ODM figures (Hakuna NASA hata kwa Paybill account and Presidential ballot papers)
ION...RWNEBP NN
 

kwido

Village Elder
#11
Nimeona UOTP wakisema they gave the numbers nikashangaa sana. I have analyzed the 2013 and 2017 presidential elections.

KEY FINDINGS

1. The voting pattern in the counties remained the same except for
  • Garissa - Uhuru Kenyatta won in 2017 as compared to Raila's win in 2013. The margin was 427 votes as compared to 2013 where Raila won with a margin of 3052 votes. Governor of Jubilee also won(ALI BUNOW KORANE )
  • Marsabit - This was a shocker. In 2013, Raila won with a margin of 1437 votes but alas in 2017 Uhuru won with a difference of 76,693 votes. Could it be because of the Badassa Dam project? Governor of Jubilee won (MOHAMUD MOHAMED ALI)
  • Samburu - Raila won in 2013 with a margin of 9001 which was overturned to uhuru's win by 131 votes.
  • Narok - raila (2013 win ) - margin of 9210; uhuru (2017 win) - margin - 20016 votes2
2. Voter Turnout declined allover the country with the sharpest decline in Nyanza from 89% in '13 to 78% in '17. Coast area maintained the lowest voter turnout with 70% and 65% respectively while Central mainatained the highest turnout with 92% and 86% respectively.

3. Alliances: The rift Valley bloc delivered 2,758,969 votes for Uhuru. The luhya votes and ukambani vote delivered 2,273,256 votes for Raila Odinga. The effect was Isaac ruto was unfelt in Nasa as his county Bomet gave Raila a meagre 31,822 votes. In Machakos, Uhuru made a massive gain of 46,969 votes from '13 election which can be said to be worth something in the opponents stronghold. In Bungoma and Kakamega, alliances were able to bring in a gain 134,417 votes for Uhuru. In Kisii and Nyamira county, Uhuru enjoyed an extra 131,054 votes from his '13 tally whereas Raila lost 40,039 votes in the same region but maintained the popular vote.

4. Strongholds (Hometown): Central area delivered 2,384,491 votes to Uhuru whereas Nyanza had 1,738,569 votes. The difference between this 2 strongholds stands at 645,922. Both candidates performed dismally in their opponents stronghold. Raila managed 88453 votes in Central and Uhuru 338,698 in Nyanza(Kisii factor)

5. Overall: Uhuru made an overall gain of 2,029,857 votes and Raila 1,421,678 votes. Uhuru top 5 gains were in Kiambu, Nakuru, Nairobi, Meru and Muranga County. Raila's top 5 gains were in Kakamega, Nairobi, Vihiga, Bungoma and Homabay County.

CONCLUSION

Isaac Ruto has no benefit to Jubilee. His move is a matter of self preservation.

The strong voting bloc of Rift Valley and Central - 5,143,460 votes swallows up Nyanza, Western, Eastern and Coast which have 4,812,856 votes leaving the North Eastern bloc with registered voters of 501,912 to be termed as a battlegound.

Kisii votes: Even though Uhuru managed to get 28% of the Kisii vote, he won in 2013. In 2017, he got 48%. This would imply that Jubilee are only courting the Kisii to avoid a runoff scenario.

Luhya votes : The same applies to the Luhya. Their votes are key to avoiding runoff.

N.E votes: The county gave Uhuru the popular vote in '13 and '17. i expect the same.

Coast continues to disappoint Raila. With a vote basket of 1.7 million voters and a 65% turnout, Raila has not been able to get the most out of this county.

Therefore, my UOTP friends- numbers never lie. The only way Raila can win the elections is if Coast na region zao zote zikuwe na turnout ya 95% and above while Uhuru maintains which is impossible.

Attached are the analysis of the results for UOTP to see!
PS:
Natafuta internship ya 3 months.
Bachelor of Commerce.
Ahsande.
Creativity 7/10
Ability to understand the task 8/10
Writing ability 6/10
Presentation skills(purely based on the attachment) 3/10
Overall score - Fair
Lastly, RWNEEEBPORK.
Case closed. Next!
 

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