Ethiopia flies in Troops as clash with Kenyan forces imminent

Wafs

Village Elder
#61
... Even UG has SU27, you can imagine what we have plus Air defense system. Ask your brothers in Nanyuki what they have in store.
Nah. UG has Su-30MKs. They are few but can do a number on our fighter jets. Fourth generation aircrafts can also function as AWACs due to data links. This alone is a big boost in an air warfare. It is not an automatic win for Uganda because the standards of pilot training matter a lot. From what is public, our air defense systems are limited. They are expensive and we don't have enough to cover all the key installations.
All we have is a few third generation fighters. According to some reports, some are always leaking oil.
 

obienga

Village Elder
#62
Blind patriotism, ujinga mtupu. Ethiopia is militarily stronger than Kenya and that's a fact. People with access to better information have ranked Ethiopia above Kenya. Hapa usijichoche ya bure. In fact, haujui chenye unasema kabisa. Algeria is arguably stronger than SA. Algeria has a very deadly airforce. Isitoshe, they recently ordered a batch of Su-35s. In a conflict, Algeria's airforce can easily incapacitate Kenya's sensitive installations (cutting our fighting power by a huge chunk). Tunisia, Morocco and Nigeria are all stronger than Kenya. The mitumba equipment you see paraded on national holidays at Nyayo stadium don't hold a candle to heavyweight equipment out there. Kenya's army is decent but very far from being at the top.
You can't argue about this, you're not allowed. CIA and other organizations with info, that you and I don't have access to, know better.
All in all, there is no war going to happen between Kenya and Ethiopia.
You can never predict how war will turn out based on text books. Just ask the US (guided by the CIA you reference) about their decades long misadventure in Afghanistan or the Ethiopians in their war against "tiny" Eritrea.

Do you suppose the latest equipment is brought out in the open to be paraded?
 

obienga

Village Elder
#63
I didn't want to get into A2/AD for this reason. We have few F-5 fighters in service, which are third generation fighters. They are multi role planes. Against Su-27s (fourth generation), designed for air superiority, they don't stand much of a chance. They will be swatted out of the sky like flies. Furthermore, Su-27s are equipped to suppress enemy air defenses. There are no public specifications on how an Su-27 would fare against a BUK1M system. What I do know is that, Ethiopia used their jets to successfully suppress Eritrea's air defense and shoot down their planes. Ethiopians also have the Pantsir, SA-2 and SA- systems. I don't know how many batteries of air defense systems Ethiopia and Kenya posses, why I didn't want to mention this.

The light attack helicopters we acquired certainly boosted our capabilities but they still don't hold a candle to dedicated attack helicopters like the Mil Mi-24.

I mean, just look at them.
MD530F
View attachment 255620

Mil-24
View attachment 255621

MD530s are capable but more suited to scouting and counter insurgency operations. I don't think they will fare well in a fight with a near peer state.

I didn't mention this but Ethiopia has better and more artillery and tanks than Kenya. We don't have much advantage when it comes to boots on the ground.
Flight International’s World Air Forces 2013 also lists 16 Mi-28s ordered by Kenya, with 5 delivered https://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/russia-improving-its-mi-28-attack-helicopter-fleet-016257/
 
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Wafs

Village Elder
#67
You can never predict how war will turn out based on text books. Just ask the US (guided by the CIA you reference) about their decades long misadventure in Afghanistan or the Ethiopians in their war against "tiny" Eritrea.

Do you suppose the latest equipment is brought out in the open to be paraded?
That's true. You are forgetting one thing, experience. Ethiopia extensively reorganized its army after the Eritrean episode. The war in Afghanistan is tricky because it's a guerrilla warfare. Taliban fighters hide in the mountains and launch surprise attacks. In a war with another state, it will be out in the open. For example, the US quickly dismantled Saddam's defenses and he went on the run.
Yes you can predict how war will turn out. It won't be 100% accurate but will be close. All militaries around the world have experts who try to predict outcomes before major decisions. The US recently nearly striked Iran after a US drone was downed. Trump called off the strike because Iran's retaliation would have left a sizable dent. Trump claimed he called off the strike because 150 people would have died as a result but that's just hubris. So yeah, there are planners who assess outcomes of battles. Another example, Russia didn't retaliate when Israel caused the downing of a Russian il-20 in Syria. Russia is many times stronger than Israel but retaliating so far from home would have been catastrophic. Exact scenario happened with Turkey. All these prove there are planners whose sole work is to assess and predict outcomes.

That's not work but based on what we know, it will be less complicated if Ethiopia invaded Kenya than Kenya invading Ethiopia. Purely based on terrain. Terrain always plays a very big role. Ask Russia.

This is Ethiopia, very mountainous especially on the Southern border
images (11).jpeg

And this is Kenya
images (12).jpeg

All latest equipment bought by countries are known. There are rules governing purchase of arms. To promote openness and avoid unnecessary tensions between nations. It will be secret if a country is developing its own military tech. For example US, Russia, China, UK, India, Japan etc have very active military R&D and they won't show the world the best they have. Kenya lacks any sort of R&D, all our military gears are purchased. And if purchased, it's going to be public. If purchasing from Western countries especially, it is going public whether you like it or not. The equipment may not be paraded but it will be known in the public domain that the equipment is indeed there.
 

Wafs

Village Elder
#68

obienga

Village Elder
#69
This one didn't go through.


Exactly. Never happened.
If it didn't, how did the flag end up on them (photoshop?) or do you mean to say they were returned?

Wacha. This deal was scuttled by Obama who instead offered us free Huey Helicopters and wanted to sell us Air Crop Dusters.
Do you remember a time when Somali pirates exposed a deal that was in public said to have never gone through? Modified crop dusters have been used effectively in Yemen by the UAE. The Kenyan ones were overpriced.

Nothing is ever "free" from the US.
 
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obienga

Village Elder
#70
That's true. You are forgetting one thing, experience. Ethiopia extensively reorganized its army after the Eritrean episode. The war in Afghanistan is tricky because it's a guerrilla warfare. Taliban fighters hide in the mountains and launch surprise attacks. In a war with another state, it will be out in the open. For example, the US quickly dismantled Saddam's defenses and he went on the run.
Yes you can predict how war will turn out. It won't be 100% accurate but will be close. All militaries around the world have experts who try to predict outcomes before major decisions. The US recently nearly striked Iran after a US drone was downed. Trump called off the strike because Iran's retaliation would have left a sizable dent. Trump claimed he called off the strike because 150 people would have died as a result but that's just hubris. So yeah, there are planners who assess outcomes of battles. Another example, Russia didn't retaliate when Israel caused the downing of a Russian il-20 in Syria. Russia is many times stronger than Israel but retaliating so far from home would have been catastrophic. Exact scenario happened with Turkey. All these prove there are planners whose sole work is to assess and predict outcomes.

That's not work but based on what we know, it will be less complicated if Ethiopia invaded Kenya than Kenya invading Ethiopia. Purely based on terrain. Terrain always plays a very big role. Ask Russia.

This is Ethiopia, very mountainous especially on the Southern border
View attachment 255679

And this is Kenya
View attachment 255680

All latest equipment bought by countries are known. There are rules governing purchase of arms. To promote openness and avoid unnecessary tensions between nations. It will be secret if a country is developing its own military tech. For example US, Russia, China, UK, India, Japan etc have very active military R&D and they won't show the world the best they have. Kenya lacks any sort of R&D, all our military gears are purchased. And if purchased, it's going to be public. If purchasing from Western countries especially, it is going public whether you like it or not. The equipment may not be paraded but it will be known in the public domain that the equipment is indeed there.
Not everything is known. Take for instance when the bungled Westgate operation took place, military experts from around the world were shocked to see the type and style of weapons in use. Kenya is the only military in Africa to have FN Scars. If it was already public knowledge, how comes it wasn't known until the media photos were taken? Had there been no Westgate (or recklessness which did not establish a security perimeter) knowledge of such would have remained secret. It is only public if the US government has to approve the purchase or is funding the purchase requires public disclosure. The Israelis do not disclose all their sales as do the Russians and Chinese, Kenya is a major customer or recipient from all those 3 not to mention some Eastern European states and the UK all of which are mostly secretive. What leaks out is usually propaganda or just that, a leak.

Experience may make it so. Just because they reorganised does not mean it was effective or that others went to deep sleep while they did so. Anyone imagining a war is going to happen and be a walk in the park is dreaming. It is akin to imagining that Canada would go to conventional war with the US. Every country has contingency plans for all types of scenarios. There is nothing to say, that in the unlikely event of such an invasion, guerrilla tactics would not be used. It would likely be the same thing were Iran to be invaded. That is partly how North Vietnam won the war, they did not care about the number of casualties and they used the viet cong with devastating effect, eventually 58,000 US forces were killed. The North Vietnamese lost over 800,000 military personnel. American public sentiment would not allow the war to continue even though the US had military superiority. Allies would also likely swing into action to protect their interests. Conventional wars of the past are long gone. The downing was a friendly fire incident by Syrians.

Retaliation does not have to be an overt operation, it can be covert or by proxy. If you have been following events, Russian and Israeli interests are aligned. It is in Russia's interest not to be engaged in war but in a stable Middle East. Turkey was squeezed by the Russians in other ways and if you have been following events is risking sanctions for buying weapons from Russia! That is all wars are about, national interests. Wars between nations are never fought over senseless reasons. East African Nations may have civil wars (political) but there is nothing antagonist enough to warrant cross border wars. War is a zero sum game if your national interests gain nothing.
 

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