1.Ethiopian Mercenaries; Attempted and Failed in Jubbaland. Ethiopia is airlifting many military to Baydhabo while at same time transferring commandos to Mogdishu airport. Such deployment is intended to achieve Farmaajo plan to capture Kismayo by Ethiopian forces.
Today 4 different Ethiopian flights landed in Baydhabo, some were taken to Mogadishu–those forces will transferred ship at port of Mogadidhu and will be taken to Kismayo sealine near Kismayo, same method applied by Bare Hiiraaale during HSM period.
Jubaland forces received advance intelligence of joint operation of Pres Farmaajo and Ethiopian forces to land sealine. To prevent such deployment, Jubaland, supported by Kenyan forces closed its air, sea, and land today.
At same time, Jubbaland with well trained security forces is at highest alert; it deployed many forces inside and outside Kismayo, as well as surrounding areas including sealine to prevent such deployment.
If Ethiopian forces land near Kismayo, there is no doubt Jub forces will engage militarily. Ethiopian forces will not get easy ride to achieve its military plan. All out war will break out. We will see how the situation develops.
Nb: Village chiefs should understand the broken English and get the Gist.
Kama uliangalia clip wazito wa east africa wakifanyiwa introduction pale Sudan last week, you know Ethiopian Prime Minister ndo kusema sa ii. Hakuna mtu anatambua kenya tena. Na Djibouti wamesema hapana tambua, next year June wanachukua io kiti ya security council kenya ilikua inaona isha pata.
Kama nywele makamasi wa somalia wanatulemea with all the sophisticated weapons we have, Ethiopia watatuonesha vumbi if we try to engage them. Ile beating tulipewa El Adde itakaa childs play I tell you.
If Kenya thinks the stay in SOmalia is untenable we should just pull out,
Or else take a strong stand, we need a buffer zone and jubaland initiative is the best move…
As on my earlier analysis, Ethiopia cannot mount a defense against KDF in Kismayu, its logistically not viable unless KDF ni malenge…
Also Ethiopia cannot successfully invade Kenya in a full blown out war, they have a large army but its limited by geography and logistical capability…
Kwani Nani ako on the defense / offense.
Na hakuna vita btw. Kenya and Ethiopia, hii ni proxy war pale Jubaland.
Where does U.S, E.U, China and Russia stand in this, hawa ndio wataamua how this will go, coz. they are the only ones who can afford to throw hardware at these two warring parties till kingdom come
Ethiopia has been in Somalia for some time now, they are even in Kismayu as we speak , only that they are not in control of the city and its major installations… my argument is even if they initially dislodge the few Kenyans soldiers there , if we mobilize our men and equipment they cannot just match, their logistical supply lines are just stretched thin…
And its even deeper than that, Kenya wants a buffer zone hence why they have started recognizing jubaland as a special status zone,
while the guys from Mogadishu want to be in control of the whole of it under the central govt…ETHIOPIA is supporting them on that…
But i think Ethiopia is loosing the plot, “Somalia will not be a united country in the near future”, autonomous, peaceful and functioning regions should be the goal, after they have sorted that then they can re-unite later…
Even if Mogadishu manages to take over Jubaland and control Kismayu, it will be just a matter of time and another warlord will rebel, and we will be in square one once more.