Huwa naskia mkisema Ruto will win... can you kindly explain how he will win. With which tribes exactly?!

patco

Village Sponsor
#1
It's been repeated here so many times that it's almost gospel truth. Lakini huyu mjamaa atashinda kiaje??!

WHICH TRIBAL ALLIANCES DOES HE HAVE??!

Has he locked down his own Kalenjin backyard?

Nope. There's is always manung'uniko. Noise.Even they don't trust the crook. I have seen sentiments here. It's just that ni kijana yao na hakuna alternative. And Gedion and Isaac Ruto and others will never tow the line anyway.

Has he locked down Okuyu?

Nope. Hio ni self explanatory. :D

Has he locked down Western and Luo Nyanza?

Huko kuna mwenyewe. Once he says he is running wewe kwisha. Watarudi kwake mara io hio. Hata Khalwale atarudi kwa baba if need arises. So afadhali Ruto akae tu na Okuyu.

Has he locked down Coast?

It remains to be seen but that bearded guy is no joke.

Has he locked down Ukambani, Meru, Marsabit, North Eastern etc?

Not really. Even Duale is talking funny nowadays. Kalonzo is not really a Ruto guy.

So hizi hypothesis zenu ati mjamaa ashachukua mnatoa wapi haswa?

And don't forget Uhuru really knows how to charm people. He knew how to change people's minds. Ruto is the opposite. He leaves a bitter taste in his opponents mouths. He leaves people swearing that they will one day take him down. He doesn't know how to sweet talk with sweet nothings.

Then of course there is the question of corruption. Looting. How can he exorcise himself from this past? On numerous occassions he has refused to divulge his net worth.

When his assets are questioned ana zikataa until proof is unassailable.

He denied owning Weston until finally he couldn't deny the obvious. He denied the house in Moiben until he couldn't live there because of shame at such wanton waste of money.

He denied the towels, Kamwerer... the hotel(s) in coast... anyway with all these in mind atachukuwa aje?!

Na hii kitu mjue ni tyranny of TRIBAL numbers.
 

sakwa

Village Elder
#8
You are very right on point. Ruto does not have any solid base, he is still riding the ICC momentum which has slowed down considerably. The easiest way for Ruto to win, is to make this a resistance against cendro, ata yeye anajua. If he does not do that, somebody else (Raila, joho, sonko, matiangi, kalonzo, mutua) might jump on that chance and since this time there will be no excuse to give cendro another chance, Kenyans will be willing to go with anyone but a cendro sucker... just my uneducated hypothesis.
 

patco

Village Sponsor
#9
Uhuru knows how to charm people? How come i never see him charming people in central? How many washenzi and mikora has he charmed?

Si aseme ni mgonjwa saa hii uone crusades na maombi central mzima. No Kikuyu leader has ever galvanized such support. Maybe only his father. I don't admire his development track record but if I were to ever campaign I would steal from the Uhuruto campaign rule book. Even politicians in developed countries were wondering how this motherfucker does it. Kumira kumira.

Halafu baadaye anaruka kila mtu. :D:D
 

Karoga

Village Elder
#11
Hapa Patty umeanguka, loot all doesn't need to win round one ,yeye anangoja a run off , round two and win by s simple majority .If he realizes the oligarchs are against him ,atasimamisha many didas in each community ,then he gets kitu 30% then wafanye run off na number 2,and he gets the presidency by winning the simple majority rule
 

Azor Ahai

Village Elder
#12
Ruto's downfall will be thinking he can make it alone. Hii Kenya you can't because no single voting block is enough to win an election. Uhuru knew that from the onset and knew that he only needed one other voting block to win so he gave Ruto a very big bone in a deal he couldn't refuse. The fact is that Uhuru would still have won with any other voting block e.g Kambas and he only needed one. Ruto easiest route is to throw Kikuyus a very big bone. You only need Mt.Kenya voting block and any one voting block to win. Ruto's best chance is to be deputized by a Mt.Kenyan in a similar agreement they had with Uhuru. Otherwise he will lose the election to Raila.
 

Mr Jailer

Village Elder
#13
Hapa Patty umeanguka, loot all doesn't need to win round one ,yeye anangoja a run off , round two and win by s simple majority .If he realizes the oligarchs are against him ,atasimamisha many didas in each community ,then he gets kitu 30% then wafanye run off na number 2,and he gets the presidency by winning the simple majority rule
I personally think he needs to win in the first round. Run-off against baba atashindwa. Baba will have lots of room to accommodate more tribes into his coalition. Not to mention Baba's fanatical support amongst the Luo, Coastal tribes, part of Luhya land and virtually the entire Kamba nation.
NB: ONLY BABA can defeat WSR
 

Karoga

Village Elder
#14
I personally think he needs to win in the first round. Run-off against baba atashindwa. Baba will have lots of room to accommodate more tribes into his coalition. Not to mention Baba's fanatical support amongst the Luo, Coastal tribes, part of Luhya land and virtually the entire Kamba nation.
NB: ONLY BABA can defeat WSR
Baba had lost a lot of clout in many areas ,2022 Hawa two term governor s will make things very difficult ,baba atakula handcheque na some few billion s to say Tosha to the highest bidder
 

patco

Village Sponsor
#15
I personally think he needs to win in the first round. Run-off against baba atashindwa. Baba will have lots of room to accommodate more tribes into his coalition. Not to mention Baba's fanatical support amongst the Luo, Coastal tribes, part of Luhya land and virtually the entire Kamba nation.
NB: ONLY BABA can defeat WSR

Not forgeting the Maasai and the Meru who have a soft spot for baba. Hii tribal arithmetic wanasema Ruto ako guaranteed sioni.

He is also banking too many of his hopes on Uhuru appointing him as the next leader. What if it doesn't happen?

AND even if Uhuru appoints him, Kenyans don't always listen to the incumbent. They didnt listen to Moi or even Kibaki in 2013.

Hizi numbers za Ruto other than Rift Valley and pockets of Central watu hutoa wapi?!

And like @Kimakia said in the rift valley fear is the main motivation sio kitu ingine.
 

Doc Oga

Village Elder
#16
Not forgeting the Maasai and the Meru who have a soft spot for baba. Hii tribal arithmetic wanasema Ruto ako guaranteed sioni.

He is also banking too many of his hopes on Uhuru appointing him as the next leader. What if it doesn't happen?

AND even if Uhuru appoints him, Kenyans don't always listen to the incumbent. They didnt listen to Moi or even Kibaki in 2013.

Hizi numbers za Ruto other than Rift Valley and pockets of Central watu hutoa wapi?!

And like @Kimakia said in the rift valley fear is the main motivation sio kitu ingine.
So according to you, Central will side with Kimundu? Hizi ni ndoto banae just say you have a soft spot for baba.
 
#17
If MATIANG'I runs against DP LOOT ALL .....................most poor folk will cast huyo mwizi aside , kikuyus , luhyas & luos dont harbour grudges with the kisii people ....alafu everybody thinks Matiang'i streamlined education ....which is a plus .........wakiwekwa side by side , only stupid people and some D- KCSE students will vote for ruto
 

Simiyu22

Village Sponsor
#18
It’s a 2 man race. Guaranteed Ruto will get the whole of RV. Moi and the likes just stir up trouble to stay relevant but on Election Day vote for Ruto. What happens in Central is the missing link to the puzzle. Open defiance to Ruto should be worrying to him. Uhuru’s influence and say is decreasing daily in that region as people realize their gains were marginal in his term. Raila also took a hit signing the handshake. What will be more telling is what happens from January 2022. Will Uhuru go on a all out for Ruto campaign. Or does the handshake muffle him.
 
#19
For Ruto to be president, he will either have to be supported by baba who has a general support from various tribes in the country, or by Uhuru who has the support of the Kikuyu and to some extent Mt Kenya votes. If Raila vies in 2022 and Kiuks support someone else other than Ruto or Raila, then Raila will win. If Uhuru and Raila agree on supporting another candidate other than Ruto, then that candidate will win. If Raila or Uhuru says Ruto tosha in 2022, it will be a waste of time for anyone else to run for presidency.
 

scotch

Village Elder
#20
If MATIANG'I runs against DP LOOT ALL .....................most poor folk will cast huyo mwizi aside , kikuyus , luhyas & luos dont harbour grudges with the kisii people ....alafu everybody thinks Matiang'i streamlined education ....which is a plus .........wakiwekwa side by side , only stupid people and some D- KCSE students will vote for ruto
Atawezana na campaigns!? Very few politicians can cause and maintain the euphoric high needed in the campaign trail. A technocrat like Matiangi can only win if WSR is barred from vying and Raila and Uhuru campaign on his behalf
 

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