If Egypt and Ethiopia were to go to war over the Nile

News & Politics
1

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‘The Renaissance Dam’ is currently being constructed over the Nile River in Ethiopia. However, the dam is believed to cause a decrease in Egypt’s share of the Nile water once its construction is over.

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The Ethiopian Prime Minister recently stated that no force is able to stop the construction, and that they have a million fighters to use in the war.

This actually caused some tension in the media, but the Egyptian government has not replied yet.

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But let’s look at the power of both armies in 2019.

[ol]
[li]Ethiopia[1][/li][/ol]
https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-987a88e848d635c4b0dffb4574a16d5b
[ul]
[li]Manpower:[/li][/ul]
Fit for service: 25,508,954 (%23.5)

Military personnel: 140,000 (140,000 active).

[ul]
[li]Airpower:[/li][/ul]
Total aircrafts: 82 (26 Fighters, 16 Attack, 9 Transport, 13 Trainers)

Total helicopters: 33 (8 attack)

[ul]
[li]Land:[/li][/ul]
Tanks: 800.

Armoured fighting vehicles: 800.

Self-propelled artillery: 85.

Towed artillery: 700.

Rocket Projectors: 183.

[ul]
[li]Navy:[/li][/ul]
–

[ul]
[li]Defense Budget:[/li][/ul]
$340,000,000.

  1. Egypt[2]

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[ul]
[li]Manpower:[/li][/ul]
Fit for service: 36,075,104 (%36.3)

Military personnel: 920,000 (440k active, 480k reserve)

[ul]
[li]Airpower:[/li][/ul]
Total aircrafts: 1,092. (211 Fighters, 341 Attack, 59 Transporters, 388 Trainers)

Total helicopters: 293 (46 attack)

[ul]
[li]Land:[/li][/ul]
Tanks: 2,160.

Armoured fighting vehicles: 5,753.

Self-propelled artillery: 1,000.

Towed artillery: 2,189.

Rocket projectors: 1,100.

[ul]
[li]Navy:[/li][/ul]
Total naval assets: 319*

(2 Aircraft Carriers, 9 Frigates, 7 Corvettes, 4 Submarines, 50 Patrol vessels, 34 Mine warfare)

[ul]
[li]Oil:[/li][/ul]
Production: 589,400 bbl/day.

[ul]
[li]Defense budget: $4,400,000,000.[/li][/ul]
Without bias, I don’t know why Ethiopia has made such threats, I also know why Egypt has not replied yet, because it’s not worth it.

The Ethiopian Army cannot be protected with 82 aircrafts only. Once the aircrafts are destroyed, everything on the ground will be destroyed in minutes, even if you had a billion fighters.

2

Egypt cannot afford war with a country that isn’t its neighbor, you need authorization to use air space and as things stand no East African state will allow that. The dam is unstoppable

3

vita za risasi na bunduki ni vita zishapitwa na wakati. tunapigania maslahi ya kibiashara.

4

Wacha kanuke…this colonial treaties Egypt made for the Nile should be scrapped. If roles were reversed hawa warabu wangetuwekea sumu law hio maji.

5

What happened to the construction of a similar dam on the river that feeds lake Turkana and which experts has said would be a death knell for the lake.
Is it still a work in progress?

6

Sudan will happily give them the room to carry out any military action

7

Si central walifunga Ewaso Ng’iro mpaka Lorian ikakauka? Wajir walido? Wameru wakifunga Tana saa hii Garissa watado?

8

Egypt is walking lightly because Nile basin countries are also pushing to redo the treaty. They will negotiate with Ethiopia before going to war

9

Wars are not won by comparing notes in the office…The houthi’s were fighting a civil war, Saudi Arabia na UAE wakadhani itakuwa walk over with their first class best weapons in the world na superior air power…walijua hawajui.

10

Egypt will have to tone down because of other East African nations

11

Damn can decrease water flow but will it decrease the volume?

12

Egypt cant afford such a fight , Ethiopia ikiona ina lose it will just poison the waters

13

Sudan already has electrical pylons erected at its border in anticipation of the cheap incoming energy. Also dam is a huge advantage to sudan as it shall control flooding downstream and regulate smooth water flow to Sudanese irrigation projects… You are dead wrong. On this egypt is on its own

14

This is just sabre rattling. At the end of the day there will be no war. Egypt wants to ensure the flow of water without war and Ethiopia wants a dam without war. They will negotiate. The only issue of contention is how long it will take to fill the dam so as not to reduce the flow of water to Egypt.

Also, Egypt and Ethiopia are not neighbours. It will be difficult for Egypt to invade and I doubt whether our current hegemon, the USA, will allow it and I also doubt whether the US will allow its major ally Egypt to go thirsty. Countries like Sudan, Kenya etc also want the dam.

They will negotiate. Period. Egypt needs to act tough to try to discourage any other nation from building another dam.

15

Wacha watu wamenyane. Wa kuenda aende na wa kubaki abaki.

16

Negotiation will win the day.

17

niaje omwami.

18

Lol. The Sudanese military and Egyptian Military are brothers in arms.

And on the Nile, soma geography kijana. Construction activity on the Nile will almost certainly affect Sudan itself as the nation is heavily reliant on the river for agricultural activities as well.

19

we have a military treaty with Ethiopia, does it mean if Ethiopia goes into war, Kenya has to assist?

20

hii sidhani is plausible