Kenya's EV Space: Where's The Opportunity?

Kijana Kawamboi Kairu has decided to kick-start his startup by importing a Tesla Model 3 and a garage mwitu for support. I want to understand this EV space in Kenya and where the opportunity lies.

There’s the taxi app Nopia with their Nissan Leafs, they charge in the malls, TRM, Two Rivers and The Hub. Anyone used them and can share their experience? Probably have a Tesla Cab App and charge higher for the experience???

There’s Roam Motors who specialise in retrofitting their electric motors and battery to existing vehicles. So far they have a Landcruiser for game drives, a bus, and motorbike. Think these are proof of concept models yet to see them on the road.

There’s the BYD Bus run by a certain bus company around town.

There’s the Rivian truck bought by jungus for their ranches and the Model X by the mhindi.

Does the opportunity lie in importing the EV vehicles, knowing very well other dealers and individuals can do the same? Is it in garages? Is it in the charging infrastructure? How do KPLC manage to roll out this infrastructure? KenGen also wants a piece of the pie. Petrol Stations can also designate an area for charging, this would automatically give charging networks scale, a partnership between KenGen, KPLC, and the oil marketers??? How does insurance approach this knowing there are no support garages?

What will be the tipping point for EV adoption, the charging infrastructure or the presence of a critical numbers of EV vehicles? Who would be willing to take the risk of installing charging points without the presence of a critical number of EV? Will people buy EV without a charging infrastructure in place?

Usijali, just go for that gasoline vehicle. Wachana na Tesla. KPLC stima upotea Kenya saana saana. Like KPLC cannot provide 24hrs electricity service. blackouts are normal.

Next, KPLC will be forced to use generators for such charging stations in case of blackout. And that generator will use gasoline. So at the end of the day, Just go for Diesel or Petrol vehicle. We are in Africa. Tesla wachia developed nations

Hawa early adopters wataumia. He may be trying to gain market data.

Kuna battery leasing companies wanajifanya wanauza electric cars.

KPLC have decided to start investing in the EV space…unasema hio bet yao ni kuchoma?

That’s China, tunaongea kuhusu vumbistan

Curious to understand how he’ll answer the charging point question. After the uuuuuh aaaaah of a Tesla Model 3 in Kenya, how will he make a business case.

KPLC wapi, never trust that company more so when handling your power. Imagine if they cannot provide adequate service were na gari zako mutapark wapi? Anyway I am also thinking of opening up a scrape metal processing plant that will process those unused vehicles after a period of time. You can go ahead and bring me the raw materials for my future kampuni

Interesting view in this nascent EV space. Hata ule mjamaa hudryfry daughter ya Uhunye is in the space pia. NCBA also seems to be aligning itself to the space.

Anyway, for the love of old-fashioned masins. Let them invest there and me and another fellow vintage lovers will stick to Diesel or Petrol engine.

EV inaweza kuwa poa sana

upande wa kenya power blackouts, unaweza tembea na electricity generator (kwa boot ya mbele) alafu pia ukuwe na some sort of storage receptacle kwa boot ya nyuma ya kubeba diesel.

kenya power wakicheza kama wao, unaenda petrol station na kuwekewa diesel ndani ya hio receptacle unatembea nayo kwa boot na kulisha generator, na kucharge gari, na kuendelea na safari

Tesla doesn’t sell spare parts to third parties. In fact, not just Tesla but all most major EV companies like VW, Ford, Lotus are locking out spare parts to third parties.
So how will he sell Tesla spare parts kama kuzipata China ama U.S ni shida?

KPLC is also building a super charger network.

If you’re an early investor into EV market in Kenya, it would be better strategy to focus on EV brands from China and Japan that are not well known.

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Exactly.
Technology and market adoption are on the same side of the coin. At a bare minimum you need a continental addressable market because Kenya alone cannot sustain such a capital intensive space.

EV is all about battery optimization then electronics integration so if you are not going all out to bring that type of investment then utabaki umezubaa hapo.
Mambo za kuimport na kustock vitu za wenyewe is not a business model.

Would the market be willing to accept unknown brands?

So where does the opportunity lie?

Are they building on a hope and a prayer that Kenyans will buy EV to reach a critical mass for it to make sense? And where are they building this network?

By 2030, all major manufacturers from Honda, Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai, Nissan will be selling at least 50% electric vehicles for every new vehicle they sell.

By 2040, most auto manufacturers will have completely shifted to selling 90% or 100% electric vehicles.

As per the COP26 agreement that was signed by major shareholders, most countries in the world will have shifted to electric vehicles by 2040.

It’s not a matter of if, but when.

What are Kenya’s timelines on that? I know some Scandinavian countries have put 2025 as a hard stop to selling ICE cars

Takeover of EVs will happen sooner than you think. I dare say in the next ten years, EVs will be a common sight in the streets. Right now you can convert a VW beetle to fully electric for less than 300k.