Significant Projects Set to Ignite Economy Past Approx $200bn to 2022

#1
I have been reading various news trying to collect data on the expected infrastructure and economic investments expected to propel the country forward by 2022. Here are my suggestions, and feel free to add the ones you know about.

1. $2bn Turkana-Lamu Pipeline
2. $3.6bn Phase 3 Naivasha-Kisumu Railway and Kisumu port project
3. $2bn Athi River Friendship city (crossing my fingers for this one to succeed).
4. $2bn Mass Housing project (This is mostly private sector-led so it is an estimate based on the lowest possible amount)
5. $600m Lamu-Garissa-Isiolo Highway
6. $1.9bn Nairobi-Nakuru-Mau Summit Expressway (PPP project)
7. $2.8bn Nairobi-Mombasa Expressway (PPP Project)
8. $2.8bn Nairobi-JKIA metro rail
9. Variable figure-Ongoing roads of different classes being constructed by both local and national governments.
10. $4bn roughly for High Grand Falls Dam and Thwake Dam.
11. $2bn Geothermal power investments............................
**Wachana na water/dams..They are so scandal-tainted it will be hard for now for them to take off until maybe 2020 or 2021.

My crude total is $20bn added between now and 2022. This is all for infrastructure; and diaspora remittances and other specific sector-related FDI has been ignored.

Given Thika Road cost $300m (30bn), and one project located on it, the Garden City, is estimated to have sunk $2bn on completion, I expect these projects to have a conservative multiplier effect of 4, which effectively pushes the economy to the lowest possible estimate of $176bn. This assumes no other specific-sector FDI investment, diaspora remittances, Special economic zones, earnings from exports and tourism, and the effect of increased access to broader markets due to the African Continental Free Trade Area.

Otherwise, if we play our social/economic/political cards right, I see no reason why Kenya should not have a $200bn economy by 2022
 

Thiem

Village Elder
#6
Google Google chieth...all I see is debt,debt ,and more debt..if the current debt ratio is 56% ,in 2022 if all these happen our debt ratio will be in 80%..guess what after?..default and seizing of assets..
 
#8
Wake up from your dreams, to double our size in three years requires a CAGR of 26%
KNBS is very poor at capturing data. That is why the so-called GDP growth rate is supposed to be 11% last year rather than 5.8% stated by KNBS as the economy grew from $88bn to $99bn now. Statistics are hard to capture as most investors aren't required to list their investment data with the government, especially the small-scale investors.
 
#9
I would also like to list some more:

1. $1.3bn Lamu Port additional 3 berths by Transnet (South African infrastructure firm);
2. $2bn Kisumu-Malaba SGR (Expected to start 2020.)
3. $500m Tatu City-Estimated costs for city to completion is 2bn so I added a rough figure of $500m as the city is currently under construction.
4. $200m Pinnacle Towers

Total= $4bn more.
 
#10
This is an example of a road I barely knew existed. Personally, in my home county, I can list several ongoing road projects. It is now common knowledge that roads are no longer newsworthy topics unless they are expressways and involve large sums in Kenya such as Western Bypass etc.

"The government is eyeing major infrastructure projects to ease connectivity and attract international tourists and investors to the Kenyan Coast.
Construction of the Malindi-Sala Gate road project, which links Malindi town and Tsavo East National Park, is 70 per cent complete.
The Sh4.2 billion State-funded road, which President Uhuru Kenyatta launched in 2016, is expected to boost tourism in Kilifi and Taita-Taveta counties.

“The whole infrastructure will be completed. From Lamu there will be a tarmac road to the national park, and from Malindi to Tsavo. In fact, 70 per cent of that road (Malindi-Sala gate) is complete and then we have the
dualling of Malindi to Diani. In the next three to four years it will be complete."

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com...sm-in-Kilifi/539546-5071026-ross8x/index.html
 
#16
I have been reading various news trying to collect data on the expected infrastructure and economic investments expected to propel the country forward by 2022. Here are my suggestions, and feel free to add the ones you know about.

1. $2bn Turkana-Lamu Pipeline
2. $3.6bn Phase 3 Naivasha-Kisumu Railway and Kisumu port project
3. $2bn Athi River Friendship city (crossing my fingers for this one to succeed).
4. $2bn Mass Housing project (This is mostly private sector-led so it is an estimate based on the lowest possible amount)
5. $600m Lamu-Garissa-Isiolo Highway
6. $1.9bn Nairobi-Nakuru-Mau Summit Expressway (PPP project)
7. $2.8bn Nairobi-Mombasa Expressway (PPP Project)
8. $2.8bn Nairobi-JKIA metro rail
9. Variable figure-Ongoing roads of different classes being constructed by both local and national governments.
10. $4bn roughly for High Grand Falls Dam and Thwake Dam.
11. $2bn Geothermal power investments............................
**Wachana na water/dams..They are so scandal-tainted it will be hard for now for them to take off until maybe 2020 or 2021.

My crude total is $20bn added between now and 2022. This is all for infrastructure; and diaspora remittances and other specific sector-related FDI has been ignored.

Given Thika Road cost $300m (30bn), and one project located on it, the Garden City, is estimated to have sunk $2bn on completion, I expect these projects to have a conservative multiplier effect of 4, which effectively pushes the economy to the lowest possible estimate of $176bn. This assumes no other specific-sector FDI investment, diaspora remittances, Special economic zones, earnings from exports and tourism, and the effect of increased access to broader markets due to the African Continental Free Trade Area.

Otherwise, if we play our social/economic/political cards right, I see no reason why Kenya should not have a $200bn economy by 2022

Good to see positive news about Kenya.....
 

shocks

Village Sponsor
#19
KNBS is very poor at capturing data. That is why the so-called GDP growth rate is supposed to be 11% last year rather than 5.8% stated by KNBS as the economy grew from $88bn to $99bn now. Statistics are hard to capture as most investors aren't required to list their investment data with the government, especially the small-scale investors.
That's is not how real GDP growth is measures. Real growth rate excludes inflation, but if you directly compare GDP nominal figures you will have included inflation
 

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