Having studied Kenyan behavior from afar from quail eggs to all manner of pyramid schemes, I am thinking of taking a risk on the NSE just before the elections. There’s a lot of jitters all around and even Kenyans abroad are not coming home for the summer this year ati you guys have elections…kwani iko nini.
Kenyans being a flock of sheep, especially the middle class, will most likely liquidate their stock in the coming months drawing to elections making it a bear market. I’m no expert in this and I’m banking on a pure gamble to make a buck or two. We all know this elections will be peaceful and we count on each other to keep it that way.
Once the marbles have all been counted, manually or electronically, the CIC is sworn in at 7am, delivered a plagiarised speech a few days later, everyone will come back and prices could probably go up due to investor confidence and demand etc. Congratulatory messages will come from all over the place and international tenderprenuers will be landing at JKIA months later to get a hold of those big contracts before the ink at IEBC dries, money will be flowing.
If you’re a gambler, this is as good as putting your money on sportspesa, so I’m just going on a hunch. You could either win big or get burnt big.
I narrowed down to equity, kcb, Kenya re, and kenol. Scan-group is a good bet since hii ni msimu ya campaign and [SIZE=16px] advertisement will be handled mainly by them .
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I bought in early 2013 afew weeks before the elections and sold after a year,the risk paid off as the market rallied upto 2015,those who bought pre election got major bargains
Make sure to invest cash that you will not need atleast 6 months after the elections, infact make it a year kwa sababu hii ni alot more unpredictable seeing that preparations proper havent even started yet we are only 6 months away, alafu in the unfortunate event if a run off the market will take longer to recover, it is a good gamble though
That has always been a tactic of mine. I have always said this on my facebook but people never seem to be of my opinion. I made a small fortune last election and adviced my father on the same regarding the NSE shares. He trippled his money and that of their chama and I got some small change as a thank you.
The current bear market being seen is because of reduced foreign investment. First avoid bank stocks, they are yet to recover from the interest rate law. I would go for safaricom, manufacturing and probably agricultural stocks. They present good value. Look for stocks that are less than 20 ksh and throw in atleast some 200-500k. More shares the better.
Go for it. Guys are cashing in to fund election campaigns that means there is blood on the strasser. Once Uhuru comes back as he definitely will then nyama itaiva
