This is Guka - The Raila Trap Explained (Wrong (sic!) Read!)

To those whom much is given, much is expected.

In Kenya, the community that has benefitted the most in independence Kenya – due to their industry, geographic spread, cultural orientation and historical happenchance, and yes, a bit of favouritism – is what is generically known as the Gikuyu, the people of Mt Kenya.

I say ‘generically known’ because this community is not as homogenous as it is made to be. Therein are several ethnic groups like the Gikuyu itself, the Meru, Embu, Tharaka, Nithi and Mbeere. Together they make up about a third of Kenya’s population of 50 million people.

It is this community that has produced 3 of Kenya’s four presidents, and save for a few months at the end of the Kanu Error, which has had one of their own either as head of state or deputy.

Because of the reasons stated above, this community has bestrode the country’s economy like a colossus, being blessed with fertile lands around Mt Kenya and the Central Rift Valley (geographic spread), traditionally being farmers (cultural orientation) and having enjoyed the benefits of western education first (historical happenchance).

This dominance of the socio-politico-economic ecosystem has not gone unnoticed. Other Kenyan communities have often felt marginalized and dominated by the Gikuyu, and frustrations have sometimes burst into open conflict.

These natural tensions took a devilish turn in 1992, when state-sponsored violence sought to evict the Gikuyu from the Rift Valley, culminating there in the Kiambaa Church Massacre of 2008.

In more recent times no one individual has personified the abhorrence and resentment of the Gikuyu nation than Raila Amolo Odinga, the pre-eminent leader of the boisterous and likeable Luo, once Kenya’s second largest ethnic group. His hatred and dislike of the Gikuyu is easily understood.

His father Jaramogi Odinga, a communist, was Kenya’s first vice-president before falling out with Jomo Kenyatta, Kenya’s first president. He was soon detained and expunged from the independence gravy train. Years later, in 1992, Gikuyus again betrayed the Odingas by fielding a rival opposition presidential candidate, Njindo Matiba, when it was almost apparent that Jaramogi would easily win against the unpopular dictator Daniel arap Moi. Because of the split opposition vote, Jaramogi lost.

Raila watched all this from the sidelines, bile rising, vowing revenge.

Raila’s angst and anger against the hegemonic Gikuyu exploded into the open in 2007 when he found support amongst militant sections of the Kalenjin, a community with its own grievances against the Gikuyu. His own community was too depleted by circumstances to wage any sustainable war of attrition. But with support from Northern Rift communities, Raila was able to formulate what he hoped would be the Final Solution to the Gikuyu problem – the 41-Against-1 Strategem. This stratagem would range all Kenya communities against the Gikuyu, cutting them down to size, reducing their political and economic footprint everywhere in Kenya once and for all.

It is because of this ideology that Kiambaa and many other atrocities happened in 2007. Gikuyu shops and dukas at the coast were looted, and the seeds of the atrocities like Mpeketoni were planted. Even in the placcid Western province, home to the Mulembe Nation, the people of peace, tensions built up against the Gikuyu.

But some of the most elaborate plans often go awry.

When, in a fit of rage and frustration William Samoei arap Ruto, Raila’s foremost Kalenjin general walked out on him just two years after the Kiambaa violence to embrace Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta, the princely scion of the hegemonic Gikuyu, Raila was outraged beyond measure. It was to him an unforgivable betrayal. Ruto became his enemy Number One, worse even than the conniving Gikuyu.

When Uhuru and Ruto formed an unstoppable political alliance, Raila almost went stark raving mad. It was a reality that he was not going to accept, the stuff of nightmares.

But more pain was to come his way in 2013 and twice in 2017; the Uhuruto alliance frustrated his presidential ambitions not once but thrice. At the core of the Uhuruto wins, of course, were millions of votes from the Odingas old nemesis – the Gikuyu.

Ageing, dejected, frustrated, crushed and abandoned by all but his most ardent ethnic allies, Raila was beaten. Once again, the Gikuyu had cut low his and his family’s ambitions. It was as if the Odingas were stuck in a time warp in 1966, when their patriach was kicked out of Kanu at Limuru.

In their exuberance and victory celebrations, however, the Gikuyu soon forgot an old reality; the fangs of a dead snake bite in as deadly a way as those of a live one.

In his defeat and anguish, in dark basements bedecked with lizard bones and dead frogs, Raila and his minions quietly developed a strategy to win all his former battles, and attain his dying ambition to punish the traitorous Ruto and forever diminish the Gikuyu. It was the Mother of All Plans, the plan to end all others.

It was a simple plan. Raila would warm his way into President Uhuru’s heart, breaking the president’s pact with his deputy Ruto and thus preventing the later from ever becoming president. To do this Raila would feign new-found love for the Gikuyu and their prince Uhuru while portraying Ruto - using the residue state machinery he controlled when he was the Prime Minister 10 years previously, loyal sections of the media and hundreds of socio-media activists - as the epitome of corruption, and most importantly, as Enemy Number One of the Gikuyu.

Scandal after scandal would be attributed to Ruto, poisoning his relationship with the nation and especially the Gikuyu, who concurrently would be reminded of the Kiambaa atrocity endlessly.

Guiled and deceived by Raila’s lies, the Gikuyu would then hopefully – in Raila’s Plan – desert Ruto in droves, breaking the covenant they had made with his Kalenjin community to support him for the presidency in 2022.

In a classic end-game, Raila would then turn to the Kalenjin, in fake sympathy, and proclaim from the hills: “We told you, we warned you that this arrogant community, the Gikuyu, is selfish and inward looking, totally unreliable and undependable. Look how they have used and dumped your son, Samoei, who we love and are willing to work with”.

And with that Raila, whose family has known nothing but pain and betrayal from the Gikuyu, would snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

His stratagem of 41-Against-1 would arise from the ashes like the phoenix, with the Gikuyu forever distrusted by all other communities, and the traitorous Ruto consigned to the dustbins of history. In his twilight years Raila would have achieved what his father, who once begged to be allowed to sit on the presidential throne even for a second - never did in three decades.

Which is why we return to where we begun; to those that most is given much is expected. The Gikuyu are the anchor community for this nation by sheer numbers and economic power. They MUST once and for all crush Raila by frustrating his plans not only to marginalise them but also to balkanise Kenya. They must show that they are a community of its word by voting enmass for William samoei arap Ruto, and not any one else. There is honour in loyalty and fidelity.

The Gikuyu must not pretend or entertain the thought that they are superior or above anyone else. They must use their hegemonic power wisely, making decisions that take the long-term welfare and sanctity of Kenya into consideration. In Ruto, they have a chance to break the 41-Against-1 Strategem once and for all. The Gikuyu must not flirt with the possibility of being isolated forever by all other Kenyan communities, thereby putting the nation at peril.

In this, they must defy their prince, Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta, if he insists on caressing a reptile that can bite even in death.

Some truth in the article.

Your are indeed the epitome of negative tribalism and the chief custodian of the keys to the Bonobo kingdom. You should have died a day before you got circumcised for you wasted the elder’s time and that of the circumcisor.

Hehehe… Well written guka. I have a feeling that in your twilight years you still throw an Op-ed up on the meat wrappers once in a while. There is wisdom in the words of a man whose eyes have witnessed communication trough smoke signals.

Kweli there is a bit of truth in this. But alot of it is anti-rao propaganda. Goebels would be proud Muzee.

Enjoy your Easter na hio whitekap am sure unakunywa sai ndyo inafanya utupatie hii half truths (neigh, quarter truths!).

Curse is to the man who let that sperm flow in.

Raila betrayed Ruto by sacking him over corruption allegations in the coalition govt while leaving Anyang Nyongo, Kajwang and Orengo who also had scandals at the same time , that was the highest show of impunity and Ruto vowed to never forgive him . this was the time i also saw Agwambo as a selfish self centered fool . Ruto killed for Raila in the 2007 violence yet BABA akamruka after that . kama mulikuwa KICC ama you followed the vote counting , ilifika mahali ikaonekana clearly Kivuitu ameiba kura , ile sura Ruto aliweka na aka storm off hapo ndio nilijua hapa ni kubaya .

Sir, point one simple word of tribalism I have written in this post. I have been writing for over 30 years and I know the limits of free speech…

This another thing Guka forgot to mention. I like kibaki and voted for him 2007. But 2007, that victory ilikua ya Rao

Ruto didn’t kill anyone nor planned for anyone to be killed. He was in KICC as Kiambaa church went up in flames. I think I once gave the real version of what happened that night in Kiambaa here. Ruto later couldn’t believe it when he heard TMT saying that him and Uhuru belong to jail huko Hague. Like they say, in politics there are no permanent enemies but with ruto-raila, that is sealed and can never be undone. Too personal

First things first, are you an alpha male?

He he he he! Wharristhat?

Umeongea mbaya juu ya raila…and raila is a tribe(not and individual, duh!).

Happenchance… learning everyday.

He is just another old kikuyu anti-raila propagandist hating rao coz JOMO said so 40 years ago …notice that he said RAILA did this and that …no where has he mentioned RUTO in bad light …why ? …He might as well as have said RAO spoke in the kalenjin language over kalenjin radio ordering kalenjins to kill kikuyus , RUTO is a saint , RAILA is the devil…Ask this old fart what he sees RUTO holding na this old man will sanitise and praise RUTO …why ?

[ATTACH=full]234416[/ATTACH]
[ATTACH=full]234417[/ATTACH]

Rink bwana

boss sina ubaya na Ruto but whether Ruto actively participated in the killings or not , it is very clear he was a catalyst nakuambia look at those clips in KICC the two camps where shouting at each other then Ruto went silent and left in anger at the same time tension was already high on the ground and thekale ‘warriors’ where watching his reactions . ni kama UONE JAMAA AME ARGUE NA BABA YAKO NA KUMTUSI THEN BABA YAKO ANYAMAZE KWA HASIRA NA AENDE NA HUYO JAMAA AENDE PIA AKIONGEA MBAYA NA UMEKAA KARIBU NA MTOI WAKE MNYONGE NA PIA UNAKUWANGA NA GRUDGE NA YEYE , SI akishaenda utamkula huyo mnyonge mangumi na uingie mitini , knowing vey well mbuyu ataku tetea ? thats exactly what happened and dont pretend haujui

Before guka got his teeth kicked out by life, he must have been a great writer.

[COLOR=rgb(97, 189, 109)][FONT=verdana]FROM WAZUA: William Ruto is NOT going to be President in 2022 [/FONT]

I have heard a lot of excitement from Kalenjin nation about the inevitable presidency of William Ruto in 2022. To be fair to Kalenjin nation, there are also loud expressions, from Kikuyu nation, of commitment to deliver presidency to William Ruto come 2022.
Does all these pass smell test? The answer is NO! Here are my reasons.

Reason: 1. Kikuyu nation will not support Ruto because they can win in 2022 without Kalenjin nation
Kikuyu nation can win presidency in 2022 without the support of Kalenjin nation, Kalenjin nation on the other hand cannot win presidency without the support of Kikuyu nation. Because of this imbalance Kikuyu nation will be stupid to handover presidency when they don’t have to.
In games of strategy where the participants have incomplete information about the others’ intention, each player always takes decisions which maximize the outcome for them.
The optimal outcome for Kikuyu nation is to have presidency again in 2022 and they’ll take that decision not because they can’t support a non-kikuyu but because every human being will take similar decision under the similar circumstances.

Reason: 2. Gentlemen agreements are always, as expected not honored and it’s not personal

Gentlemen agreements are meant not to be honored not only in politics but also in business. This is a phenomenon that has been studied widely; it’s also a very important aspect that makes the world work better. It’s no surprise that MOU are never honored, it not because Kikuyu nation is dishonest it is because the interest of every player making gentlemen agreement is to maximize the outcome for themselves.
Math and economics has somehow explained why gentlemen agreements are not honor in studies like dominance, backward induction, Nash equilibrium, evolutionary stability, commitment, credibility, asymmetric information, adverse selection
Kikuyu nation will not honor the agreement to support Ruto in 2022 because even science do not support it and at the end of the day their strategists will sit down and relay on science to make decisions. That decision is predictable.

Reason: 3. a possible winning coalition outside Jubilee is impossible
Because Kalenjin nation cannot win alone, the other path Ruto can take is to form a coalition of his own. As Kenya politics stand, Ruto will have to combine with Luhya Nation and Kamba Nation in order to form a strong enough coalition to win presidency. Combine with both Nations will leave Kikuyu nation without a potential partner; however, games of strategy will tell you that either of the two potential partners will be better off taking number 2 position in a coalition formed by Kikuyu nation than number 3 position in a coalition formed by Kalenjin nation.

Reason: 4. even an improbable coalition with RAO as the DP and Ruto as President will not win
Kikuyu nation has two advantages that are hard to overcome in 2017 and 2022, the incumbency advantage and the advantage that comes with being the largest and the most sold voting bloc. Addition of one partner will win them the election regardless of who the partner is. The challenge for opponents of Kikuyu nation voting bloc is that they not only have to form a coalition of their own but they also must keep others from forming a coalition with Kikuyu nation.
Given what we know, Kikuyu nation will not have a problem finding a partner and the opponents will have a lot of problems keeping partners away from Kikuyu nation.

Reason: 5 No coalition can beat a coalition formed by Kikuyu nation and Kikuyu nation will not be in a coalition that is not the lead.

Kikuyu nation will not be in a coalition that is not led by their own not because they can’t support other tribes but because it doesn’t make any logical sense. In a games of strategy where the participants have incomplete information about the others’ intention, each player, as expected, will takes decisions which maximize the outcome for them. Kikuyu nation should not apologize or be scorned for picking the logical choice and optimizing the outcome for themselves.

Moral Lesson: The largest tribe or an incumbent will win every election until we stop voting along tribal blocs.
As long as we still have Kalenjin nation, Kamba nation, Kikuyu nation, Luo nation, Luhya nation and Coast nation voting blocs. Kikuyu nation will win because they are the largest tribe and they hold incumbency advantage. Kikuyu nation should not apologize for it because this is a game of numbers and game of strategy, they have an advantage and they have a right to use it.
For all the other losing nations, the only legal way to win presidency is to dissolve tribal voting blocs and integrate the country into one, otherwise this is a race for Deputy Presidency and the smaller/weaker coalition partner. William Ruto and Kalenjin nation will understand this in 2022.

Hii Guka is part of Team Tanga Tanga. So we can forgive his outburst and halftruths since his writings are partisan.

[SIZE=1]Pssst… Guka. Haujasema walikupea ngapi… :D[/SIZE]