Voter turn out comparison: 8th vs 26th

Joe Snr

Joe Snr

Village Elder
#1
#1
1. Voter turn out during 26th 0ctober polls has been reported as 48%.( )

2. Voter turn out during 8th 0ctober polls was reported as 79.1%. ( https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/art...8-2-million-votes-against-raila-s-6-7-million)

3. Total number of registered voters is 19.6 ( http://kenyayote.com/iebc-breakdown-final-19-6-million-registered-voters-kenya-2017/)

4. Using the figures listed above, and comparing them with votes cast in favour of NASA and Jubilee in 8 th August polls, Can a Statistics guru in this kijiji calculate for us the correlation and effect of NASA poll boycott on general voter turn out in 26th october poll.
 
The.Black.Templar

The.Black.Templar

Village Sponsor
#2
#2
Joe Snr said:
. Using the figures listed above, and comparing them with votes cast in favour of NASA and Jubilee in 8 th August polls, Can a Statistics guru in this kijiji calculate for us the correlation and effect of NASA poll boycott on general voter turn out in 26th october poll.
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None whatsoever, progression on a linear scale will show presdient uhuru kenyatta win with the same numbers as on 8th.
 
K

Kennedy Maina

Village Elder
#7
#7
Joe Snr said:
1. Voter turn out during 26th 0ctober polls has been reported as 48%.( )

2. Voter turn out during 8th 0ctober polls was reported as 79.1%. ( https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/art...8-2-million-votes-against-raila-s-6-7-million)

3. Total number of registered voters is 19.6 ( http://kenyayote.com/iebc-breakdown-final-19-6-million-registered-voters-kenya-2017/)

4. Using the figures listed above, and comparing them with votes cast in favour of NASA and Jubilee in 8 th August polls, Can a Statistics guru in this kijiji calculate for us the correlation and effect of NASA poll boycott on general voter turn out in 26th october poll.
Click to expand...
Nasa boycott had no effect on Jubilee numbers, but Nasa intimidation and threat of violence did.
Jubilee supporters in swing areas like Kisii and Nyamira stayed away for obvious and understandable reasons.
For other parts of the country, fatigue, rain and assured outcome played a role in the low turnout.
 
LINANI

LINANI

Village Elder
#9
#9
Kennedy Maina said:
Nasa boycott had no effect on Jubilee numbers, but Nasa intimidation and threat of violence did.
Jubilee supporters in swing areas like Kisii and Nyamira stayed away for obvious and understandable reasons.
For other parts of the country, fatigue, rain and assured outcome played a role in the low turnout.
Click to expand...
Nyamira had a very high voter turnout, read stupid Itumbi posts
 
Shamsudin

Shamsudin

Village Elder
#10
#10
Joe Snr said:
1. Voter turn out during 26th 0ctober polls has been reported as 48%.( )

2. Voter turn out during 8th 0ctober polls was reported as 79.1%. ( https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/art...8-2-million-votes-against-raila-s-6-7-million)

3. Total number of registered voters is 19.6 ( http://kenyayote.com/iebc-breakdown-final-19-6-million-registered-voters-kenya-2017/)

4. Using the figures listed above, and comparing them with votes cast in favour of NASA and Jubilee in 8 th August polls, Can a Statistics guru in this kijiji calculate for us the correlation and effect of NASA poll boycott on general voter turn out in 26th october poll.
Click to expand...
For causal relationships, you have to take care/ control for covariates in this case confounders for you to fully attribute your assertions.
 
LINANI

LINANI

Village Elder
#16
#16
Soprano said:
My simple maths informed by the desire to please Nasarites, who have a penchant liking for living a lie, shows that if those who voted are 6.5m, and the registered voters are 19m, then all the other 12.5m voters could have voted for Raila.
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Very true, the figure is 10million. not 12million. Jubilee strongholds voter turnout is comparable to the August 8th one.
 
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