Voter turnout prediction in numbers

MuBig

Village Elder
#1
Prediction and well thought out opinions on voter turnout zikam.

Of course Uhuru cannot attain the 8.5M votes he got last time. I am really hopeful it will be above 7M but kuna tashwishi nyingi sana.

Jubilee voters in places like Bungoma, Nyamira, Kisii, Marsabit, The Coast, Machakos and Nairobi have been clearly intimidated. There is low turnout in those areas yet places like Marsabit mainly voted Jubilee. Nyamira and Bungoma have elected Jubilee officials yet there is no way such low turn out could have successfully elected an MP into parliament.

Some people have also not traveled to Shags this time round unlike on 8/8.

With that in mind, mnaona Turn out ya ngapi wakubwa? I know that it doesn't matter but bado there is pride in knowing that the minimum number of voters UhuRuto has even with intimidation.

Mimi I hope he at least hits 7M. If he gets 6.5M, it will be very close to NRM (Formerly NASA) tallying centre and that won't be good.

Wakubwa, nani ako na quick analysis how the voter apathy in swing counties will affect Uhuru's votes? E.g Apathy in Homabay will have 0 effect. What about others?
 

Shaka

Village Elder
#7
I think it will be about 5m, translating to about 85-90% of all votes cast. People are tired, they are struggling economically and the uncertainity our kangaroo supreme court have created. Citizen had no time to prepare and travel. But what matters is the percentage. And all these are the fruits of one man who thought he is powerful enough to make Raila president.
 

MuBig

Village Elder
#8
Voter turnout... Total 10.6m, uhuru 8.6m.
Please elaborate.
Is the voter turnout higher than last time?
Who are the 2M extra votes going to? The other candidates barely made 500K combined votes last time.
Why do you think Uhuru will get 8.6M with the "apparent" lower turnout?
Am genuinely curious
 

MuBig

Village Elder
#12
I think it will be about 5m, translating to about 85-90% of all votes cast. People are tired, they are struggling economically and the uncertainity our kangaroo supreme court have created. Citizen had no time to prepare and travel. But what matters is the percentage. And all these are the fruits of one man who thought he is powerful enough to make Raila president.
This is what I am talking about. @Koolibah @Kasighau @ebbie @Chanari . Just a number from evaluation of situation. Nothing big.

But I really hope it more than 6M. Raila and Githeri Media will have a field day if Uhuru's votes drop by 3.5M votes. Wanaweza drive the narrative that Uhuru stole the votes last time.
 
#14
This is what I am talking about. @Koolibah @Kasighau @ebbie @Chanari . Just a number from evaluation of situation. Nothing big.

But I really hope it more than 6M. Raila and Githeri Media will have a field day if Uhuru's votes drop by 3.5M votes. Wanaweza drive the narrative that Uhuru stole the votes last time.
I don't understand why the number needs to be high. Even if only 3 million votes, and Uhuruto get 70% from that, with more than 24 counties won, that's it.
If Uhuru gets 10 million votes, nasa will say he stole the votes. If he gets only 2 million votes, they will say 'this means he stole on 8/8'. That is why the only thing that matters is he only satisfies the conditions set by law to be declared the winner:
-50+1% of total votes cast
-25% in at least 24 counties.
Those are the only conditions JP needs to satisfy, to become the winner.
 

MuBig

Village Elder
#15
I don't understand why the number needs to be high. Even if only 3 million votes, and Uhuruto get 70% from that, with more than 24 counties won, that's it.
If Uhuru gets 10 million votes, nasa will say he stole the votes. If he gets only 2 million votes, they will say 'this means he stole on 8/8'. That is why the only thing that matters is he only satisfies the conditions set by law to be declared the winner:
-50+1% of total votes cast
-25% in at least 24 counties.
Those are the only conditions JP needs to satisfy, to become the winner.
I get you. I already pointed out that the numbers don't matter according to the constitution.

But: I am basing this on pride. Knowing that Jubilee has numbers in their strongholds. I mean, even if he gets 1M votes, he will win legally. But that makes Jubilee look very weak in terms of the next elections to be held (preferably 2022). It is not a question of Why but How Many! Can you please make an educated guess.
 

mtadao

Village Elder
#16
And what will uhuru gain after getting 98% of the less than 5 million votes cast out of the 19 million voters?
Something seriously ails Kenya but as expected the king will rule as if nothing happened.
Psychopants msiniquote.
What will he gain? He will become president of the Republic of Kenya. %of the total votes cast is what is recognised by the law not registered voters.
 
#17
I get you. I already pointed out that the numbers don't matter according to the constitution.

But: I am basing this on pride. Knowing that Jubilee has numbers in their strongholds. I mean, even if he gets 1M votes, he will win legally. But that makes Jubilee look very weak in terms of the next elections to be held (preferably 2022). It is not a question of Why but How Many! Can you please make an educated guess.
Well, I don't think having few votes and low voter turnout makes Jubilee seem weak at all. My view is that the number of people voting has zero importance. It does not mean because someone did not vote, then that person is against Jubilee, or supports poll boycott. In any case, if NASA were so sure people support the boycott call, they wouldn't be having youth blocking roads in Migori and Homa Bay, thus preventing IEBC from doing its job.
 

gashwin

Village Chief
#20
And what will uhuru gain after getting 98% of the less than 5 million votes cast out of the 19 million voters?
Something seriously ails Kenya but as expected the king will rule as if nothing happened.
Psychopants msiniquote.
Chifu ulipigia RAT kura? if you didn't forever hold your peace or run now...you have slightly under two hours....
 

Top