Why Exactly is it That RWNEBP?


Village Elder
After yesterday’s dramatic ruling, maybe it’s time to critically examine the above question [soberly]. RAO is a national [and pan-African] politician who is fervently loved and hated in equal measure, which makes his support divisive.

It’s pretty obvious that the powers that be have expended untold energy over the last 20 years to ensure that he never ever tastes the House on the Hill, even when it’s evident he has the majority support on the ground, overwhelming at some point. And these invisible powers have been unrelenting in stalling his quest, just as RAO has been unrelenting in his pursuit.

So what is it exactly?

I have explored what various writers/ commentators/ bloggers posit about this issue and attempted to compile their main points below. Would love to read Talkers’ opinions too, sio tu kuwika all the time that RWNBP.


It is not bad karma Raila Odinga has never and probably never will be president. He is to blame for many of his own political misfortunes. He is oblivious to these mistakes and does not make any effort to correct them. Raila turns a blind eye and shifts the blame to others. This has cost him dearly.


Many of his past comrades refer to him as an untrustworthy person. He has exploited and dumped many allies and politicians. A good example is the current Deputy President William Ruto. Another example is his former political advisor Miguna Miguna.

Ruto was a key ODM official when ODM and PNU formed the Coalition Government in April 2008. Nevertheless, he felt politically shortchanged alongside his allies with the deal ODM signed with PNU. When he tried to complain, Raila’s influence saw him shifted from the powerful Agriculture Ministry. Eventually, Kibaki fired him after consulting with the then Prime Minister, Raila Odinga.

When the ICC cases began, many of Ruto’s supporters felt that he did not deserve to be at The Hague. They said that Raila used him as a scapegoat. The narrative that Raila took Ruto to Hague made him to lose the support of Ruto’s political base entirely.

His co-principals in CORD also feel that he is betraying them by refusing to endorse their candidacy for the presidency as agreed in 2013. He has already declared he will not step down for anyone.

Raila looks attractive from afar, but when you get to know him, he is not only a non reformer, but the quintessential politician per excellence like any other. In fact, a two faced individual who you will find so hard to trust when you get to know him better.


He is well-known as a key mastermind of the botched 1982 coup that aimed to topple the Moi regime. The coup left many civilians dead and property destroyed.

He joined KANU thinking Moi would declare him the presidential candidate for KANU for the 2002 general elections. Moi and KANU overlooked him and instead chose Uhuru Kenyatta. He defected in protest and formed the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). LDP later merged with other political parties to form the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC).

He had struck a deal with Kibaki to make him Prime Minister, but Kibaki did not honour the deal. He left the government in protest and formed the opposition. In 2008, his advisors like Miguna Miguna advised him to opt for fresh elections after the disputed December polls. They were sure he would win. However, he took the shortcut and opted for the ‘nusu mkate’ coalition government. We all know what happened after that.

It is also believed within the military cycles (whose big boys are undoubtedly perennial beneficiaries of land-grabbing and generous loot from public coffers) that a Raila’s presidency is not only a recipe for disaster but also the ultimate genesis of end and crumbling of their empires. As such, Raila has never enjoyed the support of the military let alone the very same air force that played a crucial role in the failed coup attempt of 1982 against former president Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi.


Raila Odinga loves sycophancy. He loves working with people who worship him. He does not take competition kindly and hates criticism at all costs. When you try to challenge him, his army of sycophants tries to silence you. He kicks you out of his camp once he realizes that you have outlived your usefulness. This hero worship has made him think that he is a political demigod. He thinks he is indispensable to Kenyan politics.

Overtime, Luo-Nyanza has graduated into a crucial breeding ground for Goons a.k.a ‘fists for hire’ or lately, Men in Black (MIB) largely drawn from the banned squadron calling itself ‘China Commandos’ and formerly based in the heart of the Lakeside City, Kisumu. These goons are responsible for organizing all manner of staged ‘political coups’ within Raila’s party mostly on behalf of diehard Luo Politicians. On the other hand, Raila has always surrounded himself with an army of loyalists from his Luo tribe. On many an unfortunate occasion, they have been responsible for breeding strife and enmity between Raila and other potential political allies drawn from other tribes.


Raila Odinga shows a strong desire for revenge. He does not think twice about the influence of his actions on others. People fear he will extend this vindictive nature to the presidency. He will become dictatorial and authoritarian, disregarding the rule of law at every turn.

His use and dump policy will see many who question his authority face persecution. In addition, many think that he will follow in the footsteps of Moi by economically sabotaging certain ethnic communities.


Unlike the other freedom fighters who stuck to the course, Raila Odinga betrayed the course. He joined the oppressive Moi regime that he had fought tooth and nail before. The same government had detained him without trial for six years.

Moi promoted him to his cabinet as the Minister for Energy after his NDP party agreed to work with KANU. This merger followed his unsuccessful bid for the presidency in the 1997 general elections.

Raila long lost the reform agenda. He banks on his hey days of the 90s but Kenyans have since moved on and his brand of politics has been overtaken by time. He creates a storm, indeed a crisis for purposes of giving him political mileage after solving it. Remember the recent IEBC fiasco after the Okoa Kenya one failed. He thrives in telling 'vitendawili' and propaganda, which Kenyans have now become so used to. He needs to have an agenda of his own.


With his taste of power, he became the same enemy he was ostensibly fighting before. All of a sudden, he began to accumulate a lot of wealth using his influence as the energy minister. He became an overnight big business magnate in the oil and petroleum industry.

Soon after, he acquired the Kisumu Molasses Plant. He has maintained that his family acquired the plant legally without political influence. However, it remains suspect why this happened just after Raila Odinga became Moi’s ally only for Moi to promote him to the cabinet.

He became a billionaire within a decade of enjoying political power. Yet, he keeps the source of his wealth obscure, even in his own biography.

There is also the inheritance of bitter and bloodcurdling rivalry between the Late Mzee Jomo Kenyatta and the Late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga by their predecessors. The two families have not only been entangled in an endless political feud but also flexing of their financial muscles and expanding their separate empires using godly and ungodly channels. There is fear within the Kenyatta’s and their allies (the Moi’s, the Kibaki’s, Biwott’s, Kulei’s and other major beneficiaries of grand looting and blatant theft of public coffers) that a Raila’s presidency will undermine their interests and jeopardize their efforts of safeguarding their loot and wealth.

Conversely, they consider him a ‘tiny thief.’ His seasoned political opponents have always been drawn from parties affiliated with the usual big boys who have been busy, since independence, looting and stashing the bad coins in Switzerland and European Commercial Institutions. The Odinga’s largely acquired their now growing wealth from the Communist Russia thanks to the Late Jaramogi’s efforts to promote communism in Kenya and across East Africa with the help of the Late Mwalimu Julius Nyerere Kambarage. With the exception of the Molasses Plant and the suspicious Gas Company, Odinga’s wealth was mostly acquired via godly channels. For this reason, Raila is not a bird of the same feather, as far as the rest are concerned.


One of the reasons why Raila will never be president is that, he doesn't value youthful candidates because they do not have money to bribe the party leadership for nominations tickets. This way, all youthful candidates will fall off along the way and will not be on the ballot and hence, their peers and relatives will have no reason to vote.

He likes the old guards who have been with him since the beginning and distastes youthful leadership. His unseen hand showed itself in the onslaught against the ‘young Turks’ who tried to take over the leadership of ODM party. MPs Ababu Namwamba and Ken Obura are among the major victims of this onslaught.

He once compared Kisumu Central MP Ken Obura to a lizard that craved for recognition and climbed a tree hoping that people would see it. This was after Obura expressed his interest in vying for the ODM party’s post of Secretary General.

This dislike for youth leadership has taken away the vibrancy in his party and style of politics. It contributed to his loss in 2013 in a major way. The same worked in favour of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto. He relies on the old ways of doing things and the old guard to advise him and run his political campaigns.

His indirect influence saw the infamous ‘men in black’ disrupt ODM elections in 2014. He even admitted that the men dressed in black were part of ODM security.


He describes himself as a reformist and a social democrat. However, that is just a facade he uses to disguise his real self. He is a big proponent of tribal politics and the sole political demigod of the Luo community.

Luos are also typically proud and they live large. They fancy taking a huge bite from what life can offer and only cares about today’s fill for it has been said since time immemorial that tomorrow will always take good care of itself. This same habit has created stereotypes among other Kenyans that if one of them was to lead this country; life can be a real bite of a hot cake served straight from the bottom of the proverbial hereafter-hellish brimstones and blazing sapphire. Prior to 2013 general elections when Raila was leading in major pollsters, Luo’s living in Nairobi were spreading serious jokes that they will not pay their rents and bills if Raila were to be elected. The rest is now sadly history.


A certain group of his supporters is violent and rowdy. He has shown inability to control them. This makes people paranoid about his leadership.


Raila defends mediocrity. CORD governors have performed dismally. They have looted their counties dry, and share their loot with the party leadership. This is why they want to get direct tickets to defend their seats. The same governors such as Joho, Nanok, Kidero and Ongwae are dictating to Raila on who should get ODM tickets for MPs' and MCAs' positions in their respective counties. Remember the old adage "he who pays the piper, calls the tune".

Raila is a truly disorganised person who largely survives on the sheer force of personality. He thrives in rallies, but does very little planning on how the entire process should run, yet politics 101 states that you must plan all the way to the end.

Raila will cancel all his meetings that would add a lot of value to his campaign, if you hurriedly presented him with an opportunity to address a mammoth crowd like the one Jubilee has just had at Tononoka grounds. He recruits some of the the best brains, but never wants to spend his money on them. He wants people to work for him pro-bono. That's why he ends up having only a few Luos working their backs off, indeed slaving for him in order to take him to the elusive State House.

Kalonzo and Wetangula are being treated as unwelcome guests in NASA, now that they seem to have outlived their usefulness. Raila and Mudavadi are thinking NASA while Kalanzo and Wetangula are still in CORD. Now which way forward? Its very clear that the former are rekindling their failed dream of 2007, and at the minimum, thinking of a coalition govt. That's why they are promising each other non existent positions that would need a bipartisan approach if the suggested referendum was to go through. In there lies the hidden dagger just like it happened within the NARC coalition. Do you think that if Mudavadi were to be the flag bearer, he could by decree cede his power to an unelected Prime Minister? And if Raila were to be president, would he shed some substantial mandate to an ambitious Premier? His close ally John Pombe Maghufuli has already done it in Tanzania, by abandoning the constitutional review process in order to retain an imperial presidency. As they say, tell me your friends, and I will tell you who you are.


Having clearly won the 2007 presidential elections, Raila repeatedly demonstrated his cowardice with the manner in which he recklessly paved way for the Mount Kenya Mafia (then surrounding the shameless election looter, one Mwai Emilio Kibaki), to walk away with everything the 50:50 pact offered. As a leader, Raila openly proved weak, vulnerable, and incapable of standing up against the blatant rape of the constitution and disregard of the rule of law by the then regime. Raila Amolo Odinga gave his sworn enemies a clean sheet with distinct subscriptions entailing a comprehensive list of his weakest side. 2013 will see this unfortunate vulnerable side of Raila exploited fully to the advantage of Jubilee, which incidentally inherited nearly the whole team in the Kibaki’s regime responsible for vote-rigging back in 2007.


Raila Odinga also thinks that Kenyans owe him a favour for his role in the second liberation. He thinks he did Kenyans a big favour. Thus, he desperately wants Kenyans to reward him. He thinks Kenyans can only repay this ‘favour’ by giving him the presidency. He sees it as a quid pro quo (nipe nikupe). Thus, he might possibly see Kenyans as mean ingrates for failing to grant him his wish. He might be bitter and resentful for this. Yet, we cannot attribute the democratic rights we enjoy right now to him alone. There are many others influential to the second liberation. For example, Kenneth Matiba, Timothy Njoya, Charles Kipsang arap Muge, Koigi wa Wamwere, Ndingi Mwana a’Nzeki and his father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.





Raila is a megalomaniac.
And ofcourse pulling a fanatic crowd doesn't amass him any points..
And no he doesn't have majority of the support on the ground, he used to back in 2007 but that ship sailed...
He commands a stupid crowd, more or less like the one Awour has...

He should go drying kabisa.. So long as he's good anyone else can go to hell, why would we pick such an entitled human to lead us... *RWNEBP


Village Elder
Remember @gashwin posting here every minute observers around the world claimed the election was credible? Raila fought for that credibility. Now @gashwin isn't talking about how the world is in awe, pouring praises and admiring the Kenyan judicial system. The turncoat he is! But that independence of the judiciary was fought for by the supreme ruler!


Village Elder
It is wrong to say he is loved and hated in equal measure. He is loved and hated in exactly 44.94% to 54.17% according to the last census.
A fallacy...so the other candidates on the ballot paper were hated by 90%+ kenyans. Please keep away from this type of erroneous thinking.


Village Elder
Raila is a megalomaniac.
And ofcourse pulling a fanatic crowd doesn't amass him any points..
And no he doesn't have majority of the support on the ground, he used to back in 2007 but that ship sailed...
He commands a stupid crowd, more or less like the one Awour has...

He should go drying kabisa.. So long as he's good anyone else can go to hell, why would we pick such an entitled human to lead us... *RWNEBP
..he never learn ! Hii upusi ya Canaan and vitadawili will never take him Anywhere !


Senior Villager
Raila is a megalomaniac.
And ofcourse pulling a fanatic crowd doesn't amass him any points..
And no he doesn't have majority of the support on the ground, he used to back in 2007 but that ship sailed...
He commands a stupid crowd, more or less like the one Awour has...

He should go drying kabisa.. So long as he's good anyone else can go to hell, why would we pick such an entitled human to lead us... *RWNEBP
amen, small sis