As early as the Hague case, WSR proved the craftier of the two. Unakumbuka vyenye alikuwa ana-fish out witnesses from Witness protection and parading them on live TV waki-retract statements? Uhuru is too good a guy, he can’t match WSR in the political Colosseum. Inadvertently, CENDRO bullies are solidifying WSRs home vote. The vote that was projected to be divided kati ya WSR na Gideon come 2022 is now uniting behind WSR. If fellow KALES were to be the reason for a failed WSR bid, KALENJIN as a community wouldn’t mind. That said, the thought that it is CENDRO that is gearing to bring down one of their own is unpalatable. He may be a thief BUT HE IS OUR THIEF. We SUPPORTED YOUR THIEF, SUPPORT OURS!
Even then, I doubt the question of corruption will have the big effect people expect. Waiguru is now a governor! Like always, the vote will be determined by tribal alliances. The KENYA political landscape is many things, but a meritocracy isn’t one of them. UHURU can’t sell a KIUK candidate to the masses, That’d be a hard sell!. I am half KIUK and even I am tired of KIUKIOCRACY! On the other hand, the only way to unite the GEMA vote is by presenting them with one of their own. If this should happen, I bet KENYANS are more offended by the thought of GEMA monopolization of power than of a WSR presidency. If UHUNYE wants WSR out, he is in for a shock. He has one of two options, both equally unattractive:
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Unite GEMA behind one of their own and risk losing the greater part of the country that isn’t too keen on seeing a third SUCCESSIVE GEMA PRESIDENT. With that goes the LEGACY of a UNIFIER he is so eager to build.
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Back a non-GEMA candidate to fight WSR and risk losing a sizable GEMA chunk to WSR. Just look at Tangatanga vs Kieleweke. The fact that there are voices of dissent in UHUNYEs home turf is very telling of WSRs influence. Without a GEMA candidate to unite them, the GEMA vote is up for grabs. The MERU, KIUK, and EMBU will probably split. Especially if WSR pulls a few MERUs and EMBUs to his corner.
The second option has one more OBVIOUS comeuppance: GEMA voter turn out will be historically low.
RAILA isn’t going to be of much help to UHURU. His turf is probably more divided than UHUNYEs. The voices of DISSENT in RAOs turf will back WSR. Judging by the past two elections, NYANZA is no longer an ODINGA MONOPOLY. That was when he still promised the highest office in the land. Without that bargaining chip, voices of dissent are bound to increase. The COAST is also up for grabs and WSR is advantaged. He already sparked a few controverses well within ODM ranks. All he has to do is to REMAIN stronger than the NEXT option and you’ll see COAST polticians seeking political continuity flock behind him. RAO being tired of political OBLIVION may even warm up to WSR come 2022 if the latter proves sufficiently strong. ANOTHER HANDSHAKE.
If at all UHUNYE wants WSR out of STATE HOUSE, he should act fast. The odds are stacked against him. The sooner he primes an opponent, the better. Until then, my bet is on WSR.