hao southern nations ni ma black bigga?
the Oromo are numerically superior but cannot dominate because their subtribes are fiercely competitive between themselves. for example the relationship between the borana and gabra of kenya is marked by occasional bloodletting over such mundane issues as wells and political power. the borana themselves have their own internal sub-clan based differences.
Luhyas? hehehe
The same reason Luhyas cant lead the Western region despite being more than Luos. Luos are united but Luhyas have many subtribes.
@123tokambio I told you PM Ably needs prayers. He is not fully in control of Ethiopia. The structures they put up in place since they won the civil war in 1992 are still in place. Its was glued together by a strong military and intelligence network led by a group of people. It seemed to work until riots took place all over Oromia and Amharic regions. This spread to the whole country. Unlike Kenya, information in Ethiopia is tightly controlled and people forget its a police state. I have been trying to piece together what’s going at the centre but its hard. Before you even start to guess what really happened in the last 24hrs, remember a lot of people don’t really know what led to the sudden resignation of the former PM. It didn’t seem he was under duress but he gave it all up and moved here. He has been busy trying to coordinate infrastructure tie up between Ethiopia and Kenya here. Both Mombasa and Lamu port are his focus now. He has succeeded in getting land for Ethiopia dry dock in Lamu port. Now he is busy at Mombasa port. The question still remains on the issues that led to his resignation. How many months it took, for what reason and the divide at the centre that runs the country. We only know a few things. First even the Tigray knew they can either change now or the country goes the revolutionary way. They had build the nation for manufacturing plants but ignored the people. Expressways to SEZ plants not rural population. Huge power plants generating power for industry with transmission lines bypassing people for 100’s of miles. Lastly putting minimum wage to the lowest in the world at $75 a month. So one half of picked Ably from Intel services to take over as he is acceptable to the Oromo majority. However I don’t think they agreed on the changes or timelines. That in my opinion was a big mistake. PM Ably has been doing the right thing but at every turn those changes hits home on the ruling council at the top. When he took over Ethiopia was bankrupt, its export forex cover was less than a month. Thanks to the police state such things don’t get noticed by outsiders. However anyone who travelled there in the period noticed how quickly your forex is taken away and you get change in local currency which is useless outside Ethiopia. Ethiopian airlines kept the country going as it was the main source of forex to the country. Their treasury pushed them to keep on flying every plane to any or all destinations to bring passengers and forex. The revenue realized paid government salaries. Projects stalled due to lack of forex in the banks that they could use to order materials abroad. PM first thing even before consolidation of power were trips to UAE and Saudi to ask for emergency aid. He got $4 billion in total. The changes since then had unforseen consequences in Ethiopia. The Intel chiefs of Ogaden, Oromia, Amharic etc got jailed. That grassroots Intel network was dismantled. Lawlessness ruled as a result. They forgot their region states are tribal, the withdrawal of state security meant every tom dick and harry wants to rule and replace them. Militia groups have sprung up. As we speak Ethiopia has 1 million internally displaced people. This is due to ethnic attacks along disputed community borders and land. When people call the police or military for help they are told to call PM Ably to go rescue them. In Tigray region they are running their own ethnic police force like other regions. In fact they check everyone going there in the various road blocks. They can decide you will not enter and you can’t do anything. That’s why I said Pray for PM Ably. He needs to concentrate on effective control and governance of the state first before going abroad. I believe he is the best for Ethiopia but I’m worried he is not string enough for the job. Eritrea saw the mess in Ethiopia and has already had several security challenges with them. They have unilaterally closed all their borders again. The changes need to go beyond pictures and bromance of leaders. Policy and cooperation is key.
Na vile Ethiopia’s economy is always used as a measure of how we are a failure as a country. …Their light rail, sijui 15% economic growth kumbe ni make up tu ndani sura ni mbaya saaaana
Kukiwa na civil war tutakua na illegal immigrants
Learn from their failure and success. They have both in equal measure. Even that Addis city light train has a lot of challenges but I fear the closed minds in our own ministry of transport are making the same mistake with our own plans. However we are far ahead of them. Kenya is free, vibrant open economy and the private sector is a big driver of our economy. They are a closed society, state economy with a very small private sector. Then factor in 80 million population mostly youth. Now you understand why they are sneaking into our country by foot or trucks on a daily basis.
I’ve always maintained that Abiy Ahmed was the system’s pick for the PM.
He is also facing the same challenges as the Angolan President and the current Botswana president.
Its very difficult taking care of the interests of the “system” and meeting the expectations of the people.
Dr. Abiy is very lucky the people are on his side. They are very hopeful he won’t blunder. The big problem is the moneyed Tigray elites and few elites from the Somali region 5 and Amhara state. They are afraid of the future. Some of them will try to destabilise the Somali region State and the Amharas.
He should take this assassinations as a gift , he should restructure the mil/ Intel and have youthful cadres of the party in influential positions; some sort of generational take over.
I wish him all the best. Ethiopians are very nice hospitable people .
The problem with Ethiopia is too much power is centred in one place or group. Hiyo ujinga itaisha soon Kenya. Let people demands and expectations drive government. Tell them in each election cycle we want this or you will not get votes. In a closed economy, the wealth network is build around allegiances to the centre. In a militarized power structure like Ethiopia, power is the gun. In a police state people views have to match the state version. That is the reason it was a ticking time bomb. The mistake Ethiopia made was to inflate their numbers. That 7%-10% annual economic growth for over 10 years was not based on true numbers. However successive government officials lied until they believed it. Its not like Kenya here where you have 10 other private sector or foreign organization that audit our books annually and publish their own findings. You have IMF, World Bank and almost all of investment/financial firms studying, giving same or different results/projections. So Ethiopia base numbers are wrong, their plans become wrong in the end. PM Ably took over and found 100 state projects stalled over various issues but mostly forex shortages or poor plans that led to failure to achieve desired results. Even they are embarrassed to see our SGR has been a more practical success than their own due to planning challenges by officials. For 1 year, 6 months it remained idle despite the launch. No enough power to drive it as it lacked a dedicated power transmission line. In cargo it was not linked to Djibouti port and they hadn’t build a dry dock to handle cargo transfer to the rail. All these crucial things are being done now when they are already paying the loan. He stopped all and now undertaking the crucial only as they renegotiate the rest. For the people I want them to be patient with PM Ably, he can not do a miracle. Let them appreciate the wins he can provide in the present and short term. Then give him time to reform the economy. Unfortunately that process means things will get worse before they get better. What made Ethiopia manageable was state dictatorship. PM Ably needs it as well to force through change. He can give people personal freedoms like speech, travel, association etc. However he needs to control all state, regional and security apparatus. He needs to keep the state economy as is. A structured opening up like what China did is better in the long run that complete freedoms at once. He is starting with telecoms, then infrastructure. All these takes time to get the best deal as you bargain. Kenyans firms are knocking the door there for partnerships, that is the way to go. Controlled and structured reforms. He can’t do this while dodging attempts on him.
Please, Somalia will always be a shit hole, intellectually they may not be any different from any other African country , but their thinking and way of life is too primitive. Watu wanafikiria clans hadi saa hii, at least KE we are at the tribal level
that’s no better
He is God’s gift to Ethiopia. Ethiopians should take advantage of this opportunity to move forward. They united to chase away the derg , though Zenawi tried his best to prevent state collapse. They should not less this chance slip. Ethiopia is at currently at the same point as Kenya was in 2002. The country is full of hope and very optimistic .
Abiy should dismantle the system slowly. He should try divide them ,use a section to dismantle the other aspects if the system.
Anyway, Abiy is a friend to Kenya , he has already opened up the economy to Equity bank. Kenya should help him by chasing the Tigray moneyed elites based in Nairobi .
Its easier to deal with tribes, and besides , kenyans power play among tribes is purely based on war of imagined resource control,
that is why when Uhuru ,Ruto ,Raila and others “unite”, kwa ground people think their tribes are in power.
Wasomali its different, its pure ethinic supremacy, the Kenyan system is decades ahead…
If Somali was like Kenya, you would unite the whole nation by just expanding clan representation in the central power organs.
But olewao…
I think we are the same as Ethiopia.
Ethiopia has semitic/cushitic tribes like tigray ,Amhara , Somalis, Oromo , Afar and the southern west people who are toposa ,marsa ,konso,karo etc basically they look like our Turkanas , the omo valley tribes etc
Ethiopia has more than 100 ethnic groups compared to our less than 50 tribes …
I think for a state to prosper it needs a good foundation. Having a stable State is not easy where there are numerous nations in the same country.
Hope he overcome. Pm seems to be a good guy
We are almost like Ethiopia, but most of Kenyas tribal issues are brought about by the big tribes, you have never heard of the Giriamas swearing how they have to vote for their man…
But when the people feel that their people are in power, we are peaceful, hata kama ni mtu mmoja.
Nguruba educate us more?
Kenya’s biggest statehood threat in the next 100 years will come from the 47 counties.
Some of them will want to be become regional States etc…
some of these counties have only one tribe living in them. The next step after getting economically empowered would be to have their own state then later trying to secede.
We should expect these things in future because of our diversity.
Very few counties in Kenya can fully exists as autonomous states, and the ones that can like Nairobi, Mombasa are too cosmopolitan to work.