There is more than meets the eye, the oppressive government is finally crumbling. You can’t restrict people for a long time
Not when you have it fixed higher than the market
The Amharic domination and ruthless suppression of minorities is a festering wound. I’m waiting for that choir of Ethiopian and Tanzanian advancement to come and explain this one to us.
The key factor is whether a country has sufficient FX. GCC have fixed exchange rate and they work.
PM Hailemariam Desalegn will be missed. A nice guy and gentleman. He wanted to led Ethiopia to join EAC. He encouraged regional market integration and regional security. He was close to President Uhuru, always whispering and laughing together. They were like two long lost cousins meeting after a while.
…and roasting they are…apparently…
You can’t compare GCC and China, countries with serious surpluses on their balance of payments with countries like Nigeria, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Sudan and until a few months back Egypt. These other countries fix their rates much higher than the market then a dollar shortage ensures. No investor will invest if he can’t be sure whether he can repatriate profits
Hao watu ni shenzi kabisa.
You exchange your dollars to Birr when you get in .
On leaving , before the terminal building, they refuse to exchange what you have not spent for other forex.
Inside the terminal building, at the duty free , no shop accepts Birr to sell you anything and no forex will change for you .
Bure kabisa .
Even Sudan and South Sudan were successful in their fixed exchange rates until 2012. They ran out of FX and started to struggle. Investors were flocking there big time. I fully understand why they still continue to fix.
Egyptians fingers must be crackling.
A destabilized Ethiopia is a good excuse for them to halt the construction of the Renaissance Dam and probably take advantage of the situation.
Whoever becomes the next PM must worked towards building a stronger relationship with EAC and work in hand to open up Ethiopia.
Halafu the population growth rate is a really big elephant in the room that the government has to deal with. When you have large numbers of young people who are unemployed and hungry, mpaka ujue kuwahandle.
The power projects will be completed, it’s among the priority projects that forex allocations has continued though delays are there. Their stadium projects have grounded to a halt. I saw a packed 75% finished stadium full of fans but the scaffolding was still intact. That is dangerous.
I understand the next PM will be from Oromia region to please the protestors but the power still resides with the Tigreys.
Watachezwa kama Angola, umeona the new president there took time to consolidate power then sacked the son and daughter of his predecessor
While it removes uncertainity, an overvalued currency leads to exports being uncompetitive and imports cheap. Exactly the kind of situation you want to avoid when you want to industrialize.
In the case of GCC, their main export is priced in dollars, so they peg their currency to in order to mimic dollar flactuations . This provides stability in domestic currency for budgetary purposes. Besides they run current account surpluses
To be frank, have been to Several regions of Ethiopia the past one month. The only thing I noted is that internet is blocked in some regions, In Adis, i had to use VPN to access WhatsApp. Facebook i never succeeded. Their currency is shit, and valueless outside Ethiopia, neither can you exchange them for dollars in that country.
Haven’t heard or seen any protest, my only complain is their ladies hardly take a shower…
No country fixes their exchange rates higher. They are always lower. The Sudanese Dinar was fixed at 2.96 to the dollar.
Hehehe, the stupid countries do. The Sudan pound was at 6, they had to devalue to 18 to the dollar, this was January. In Feb. they devalued to 30pounds to the dollar, na bado kuna shortage, black market dollar inachezea 45pounds. Ile inflation inawalima sahii ni moja serious. If they had a free floating currency since 2014 when oil prices tanked, hii shida hawange kuwa nayo
Vile Shocks amesema hapo juu. The problem with a fixed exchange rate is it does not dynamically adjust to demand and supply. This results in a shortage of forex and encourages a black market