I don’t doubt that but these 5 years will be very interesting, bookmark this!!
Kenyan Politics is determined by 1 thing let nobody cheat you.
By the combination of 2 of the 3 tribes.
Kikuyu, Kalenjin, Luo
2002 - Kikuyu & Luo Kibaki Won
Uhuru was beaten after being front by Kalenjin (Moi)
2007 - Kalenjin & Luo, we know Raila won
2013 - Kalenjin & Kikuyu Uhuru Won
2017 -???
For any person to even think about winning presidency in Kenya two of this tribes must support you.
If Raila with all the support he has been unable to deconstruct this puzzle nobody in a feasible future can solve it.
I said in this forum if Ruto is to win Uhuru has to be his deputy. Putin Medvedev style
My thoughts exactly. Forgive but never forget.
RM you fail in many things, analysing politics is one of those things.
We still have doubts on the 2017 elections? Hehehehe.
Mutua has a future bright future than kalojo
Wacha jokes
Central people hawawezi kubali hiyo combination of Ruto & kalonzo.
nimeona hio part ati Kalonzos wife supports the idea nikawasha jiko na hio ngata gazeti
ruto-kimemia or ruto-waiguru, a woman DP will neutralise the tribal narrative
A popular CS is eyeing being Arap Mashamba’s Running Mate in 2022
Kenya is suffering from tribal politics fatigue.
2017 election was not as tribal as we are made to believe, only the Luo and Kikuyu regions voted exclusively for respective NASA and Jubilee parties, all other regions were split. Tribal alliances may eventually weaken when the hereditary scions are no longer fronting for any Parties.
As long as the opposition leadership is frothing anti Kikuyu politics and Raila is the lead for the opposition, Ruto will get most of their votes. If this scenario changes, we could see tribal alliances disintegrate.
Its not about shiny eyes or jubilee, its about serving the interests of the lords of the land. So long as you’ll do their bidding you can ascent to power. Its Lucy Kibaki who approached Ruto to team with Uhuru during the promulgation of the Constitution. Then later peasants wanadanganywa eti Kibaki is against Uhuru, eti NIS is against Uhuru, eti Kibaki has no preferred Candidate… Upuss.
The likes of mwangi kiunjuri are just village heroes back there in nyandarua, nobody can trust them with power.
Right now there is no Kikuyu who can handle power beyond Cabinet Secretary level.
The Lords of the land know Ruto can do the dirty work for them.
…are you sure they are Lords
Mortal man knows not what he contends with…
If you look at the big 6 tribes in terms of votes as at 2017:
Kikuyu = 4.3m (Meru = 700k, embu = 300k)
Luhya = 2.6m
Kalenjin = 2.4m
Luo = 2.2m
Kamba = 1.9m
Kisii = 1.1m
Ruto will have to balance his equations very delicately in order to win in 2022 without a lot of headache. A kiuk VP could be a bit challenging for him. First of all, the way meru people are talking, they are not very committed to vote anyone unless the VP is one of their own in 2022.
Kalonzo ametukana GEMA juzi, so I don’t think Kiuks would tolerate him as VP. Wamalwa can do well but he doesn’t have the numbers. Matiang’i can also sell in Central, both as VP and as Ruto’s successor in 2032, but I don’t think he would be able to consolidate the Kisii numbers. Also, he would require a serious source of funding to stand as a serious politician.
Mutua is generally popular in central and would more likely deliver a better chunk of Kamba votes to the basket. My take is, Ruto should either sell Mutua or Matiang’i to Mt Kenya mafia, as his VP in 2022. However, achunge sana. Kuna element ya Munya, Kenneth, and Karua, who are more of the dormant political giants in Mt Kenya region. The 3 have never disagreed and therefore if they join hands with the likes of Gideon Moi, Hassan Omar, Mwangi wa Iria etc, they will be a force to present something tangible on the negotiation table in 2022. If they back Raila Odinga-who I am very sure will be in the ballot in 2022 no matter what, then itakuwa mtihani mgumu sana kwa WSR.