I Am Conflicted on This, But What if Uhuru Goes Rogue?

[system]

Yes let them go we have no room for them
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Meanwhile in nyeri shafting has begun
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[Masood]

@FieldMarshal CouchP

A

Are you slow or what? Nyanza is NOT asking to leave; IT IS BEING PUSHED OUT BY THE ‘MAJORITY’ JUBILEE ACCORDING TO THE MAKODINGO PETITION. Joho’s and Kingi’s Coast are o the other hand ASKING to leave.

Two different things.

Just to educate you so that you abandon the mistaken belief that others are slow.

1. When such a bill i s tabled before parliament,the constitution gives 90 days for public participation (Article 118 as read with procedure set out in chapter 16 of constitution)
2. During public participation those other counties may ask to be included in the Makodingo bill too.
3. Voting in senate is done by county delegations. 47 of them. On a constitutional bill you need quorum of 2/3 before voting starts. That is 31 of 47 counties. NASA has 20 counties so they can deny it quorum. Keisha mambo.
   Uliza swali

[Ubongo]

@Mr Black

If I was in Uhuru’s shoes I wouldnt entertain such a move, it would give credence to the claims of marginalization, to the claims that some regions are more equal than others and worst of all it is a petty childish move.

I concur with your views

[system]

@Masood

Just to educate you so that you abandon the mistaken belief that others are slow.

1. When such a bill i s tabled before parliament,the constitution gives 90 days for public participation (Article 118 as read with procedure set out in chapter 16 of constitution)
2. During public participation those other counties may ask to be included in the Makodingo bill too.
3. Voting in senate is done by county delegations. 47 of them. On a constitutional bill you need quorum of 2/3 before voting starts. That is 31 of 47 counties. NASA has 20 counties so they can deny it quorum. Keisha mambo.
   Uliza swali

Hapa utafanya @Mjuaji @FieldMarshal CouchP aingie mitini

[Mzee_mzima]

Btw why do people refer it as Luo Nyanza? We don’t have Kikuyu central or Luhya western

[Mrs4thletter]

Ati Museveni what? I doubt Museveni would want Nyanza, …

[Mr_Black]

@Masood

I have carefully read your post. And no I am far from slow.

Firstly,can Jubilee Marshal a 2/3 majority in both houses to pass the bill during second and third reading. No. Check senate numbers. Equally what would happen if more counties want to be added to Makodingo bill I.e. ask for amendments to the bill.

Secondly will the bill pass in a referendum? No.

Kaluma already presented a similar bill to parliament seeking to divide Kenya into Central and a People’s Republic of Kenya. The bills would undoubtedly fail which would force them to collect a million signatures, have the bill passed in 24 counties then a referendum would be done and the majority would have their way. in Kaluma’s case the Kikuyu and embu and meru would be pushed out, in Makodingo’s luos would be pushed out.

[FieldMarshal_CouchP]

@Masood

Just to educate you so that you abandon the mistaken belief that others are slow.

1. When such a bill i s tabled before parliament,the constitution gives 90 days for public participation (Article 118 as read with procedure set out in chapter 16 of constitution)
2. During public participation those other counties may ask to be included in the Makodingo bill too.
3. Voting in senate is done by county delegations. 47 of them. On a constitutional bill you need quorum of 2/3 before voting starts. That is 31 of 47 counties. NASA has 20 counties so they can deny it quorum. Keisha mambo.
   Uliza swali

3. Correction: I believe Nasa has 18 counties. That is 18 senators out of 47, or about 38 %. That means that JP has 62% and only requires to bribe/coerce just 2 to achieve the theshold.

4. This can also be easily defeated by manipulating the law. IT IS A REGION-SPECIFIC petition, not an omnibus one. When you pass a bill for coffee it doesn’t apply for tea!

[FieldMarshal_CouchP]

@jaymoh

Hapa utafanya @Mjuaji @FieldMarshal CouchP aingie mitini

Kijana, I am prolly the most…ama wacha tu!

[Masood]

@FieldMarshal CouchP

3. Correction: I believe Nasa has 18 counties. That is 18 senators out of 47, or about 38 %. That means that JP has 62% and only requires to bribe/coerce just 2 to achieve the theshold.

4. This can also be easily defeated by manipulating the law. IT IS A REGION-SPECIFIC petition, not an omnibus one. When you pass a bill for coffee it doesn’t apply for tea!

Tell us of the manipulation boss.
NASA senators
http://www.nation.co.ke/newsplex/jubilee-senate-independents/2718262-4054846-11ae7qd/index.html

[patco]

In the past you have written threads in full support of secession watu wa nyanza waende kabisa kwani what has changed?

Be that as it may secession like someone pointed out above can’t be that easy. I imagine it’s like a nasty divorce with the govt. grabbing what belongs to it and the other side laying claim to what it should keep. For instance how much money will they be left with to start their new life? Will they be left with a few policemen? Will they keep the county cars, I mean govt. money bought those? Will they keep the govt. teachers? What if you don’t feel like staying in the Republic ofkavirondo will there be an iron curtain like in east and west Germany to keep you back?

I also imagine there will be sabotage like that witnessed when the British left Kenya, walibeba kila kitu. The govt. might even bomb the buildings it can’t carry. I mean this is a divorce.

[uwesmake]

@FieldMarshal CouchP

FACT: Jubilee controls about 60 per cent of the vote.

:D:D:D:D:D:D the most stupid thing i have ever heard a 90 yr old impotent chieth yap

[sitaki]

@Mzee mzima

Btw why do people refer it as Luo Nyanza? We don’t have Kikuyu central or Luhya western

I think its due to the fact that we have two major tribes in nyanza, the luo and kisii

[Grundy]

@FieldMarshal CouchP

I have been wondering about Makodingo’s petition to exclude Luo Nyanza from the Republic of Kenya. Personally, I think it’s just a strategy to neuter Nasa’s endless gambits. Be that as it may.

FACT: Jubilee controls 27 counties, directly or indirectly. The law requires 24 to ratify any petition. Nasa’s petition is an exercise in futility.

FACT: Jubilee requires just a couple of MPs and senators to achieve the 2/3 constitutional majority to change the Katiba. The few that Jubilee does not have can be bought or coerced.

FACT: Jubilee controls about 60 per cent of the vote.

Back to Makodingo’s petition. It seeks to exclude Luo Nyanza from the Republic.

The only PERSON KEEPING Luo NYANZA IN KENYA, probably for prestige and legacy (‘I don’t want to be the president who ceded an inch of Kenya’) is Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta. If he goes rogue and allows his troops to proceed with the petition, they are likely to achieve all the Constitutional thresholds to re-define the borders of the country and exclude that part of the country.

There are people who say that that would be self-defeatist and that it would open the flood-gates for others to secede. I disagree.

The Makodingo petition would not be a secession but an abandonment, to use a word. (It would be like when a man/woman abandons their matrimonial home).

So, what if Uhuru goes rogue and supports the petition? Will that mean that Nyanza will have become a countrylet that will be conquered the following day by Kaguta Museveni?

[SIZE=2](This could be a test balloon, be warned)[/SIZE]

MPs and senators do not have the power to make such a call. It would have to go down to a referendum and if this happens and Uhuru fails to get a majority vote, it would be an egg to his face. I would love to see Jubilee push for this to see how far it would go.

[FieldMarshal_CouchP]

@Grundy

MPs and senators do not have the power to make such a call. It would have to go down to a referendum and if this happens and Uhuru fails to get a majority vote, it would be an egg to his face. I would love to see Jubilee push for this to see how far it would go.

@Grundy, sometimes be serious. A referendum to exclude Nyanza would pass by at least 60 per cent NOT because other Kenyans hate Luos BUT because of Raila and all the misery he causes. Would it be right? I don’t think so. Would it be rational? No.

[Grundy]

@FieldMarshal CouchP

@Grundy, sometimes be serious. A referendum to exclude Nyanza would pass by at least 60 per cent NOT because other Kenyans hate Luos BUT because of Raila and all the misery he causes. Would it be right? I don’t think so. Would it be rational? No.

I really doubt it. Remember even Uhuru could only get 54% for his re-election. Excluding Nyanza is a bit extreme and most Kenyans would vote against it but I guess the truth is out there and there’s only one way to find out.

On the side, what would happen to Luos who do not live in Nyanza, would they be sent away also?

[denis_young]

Tulisema introfart haendi mahali. Raila and his minions can go

[Mathaais]

@sitaki

I think its due to the fact that we have two major tribes in nyanza, the luo and kisii

And why should the Kisii’s be pushed out on account of the activities of the other dominant tribe in Nyanza?
That would be grossly unfair to them.

[Claire]

@jaymoh

Makondigo vs nyanza
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:D:D:D

[FieldMarshal_CouchP]

@Grundy

I really doubt it. Remember even Uhuru could only get 54% for his re-election. Excluding Nyanza is a bit extreme and most Kenyans would vote against it but I guess the truth is out there and there’s only one way to find out.

On the side, what would happen to Luos who do not live in Nyanza, would they be sent away also?

On second thoughts i think you are right. It would not receive more than 50% and as you say most rational Kenans, me included would NOT vote for that. The fact that Uhuru received 54% when in a direct compe with raila attests to that.

Even if on the off chance it succeeded, forceful removal of Luos elsewehere in the country would not occur. That falls among crimes against humanity…