If Joe Biden is the best that the Dems can do, it will be a Drumpf walkover.
[SIZE=6][B]Kamala Harris Stumbles at Second Democratic Debate[/B][/SIZE]
You must be living in an alternate universe or an echo chamber of Drumpfists.
Biden, if the elections were held today, beats Trump by double digits. Winning the battle ground states of Ohio & Pennsylvania.
The elections are not even remotely related to opinion polls. That was the big take-away of 2016.
Before you call me a Drumpfist again, sit down, take a deep breath and remember how Drumpf bullied and badgered his way through a field of pretty dynamic and youthful GOP candidates. He started as a long-shot clown and emerged tops after mercilessly filleting each contender in his take-no-prisoners way. Jeb Bush was almost crying on national TV.
How would the faltering septuagenerian Joe Biden, a man who spent 8 timid years in the huge shadow of BHO, survive a fully frontal Drumpf?
I said: if this is the best that the Dems can do after 4 years of studying Drumpf, they have lost this one already.
A combination of incumbency and gross domestic product growth rates (as predictive models) reveal that Trump will win. Sad. These models were able to predict Obama’s win in both instances
You have hit the nail on the head. I have nothing else to add.
Incumbency: check
Economic indicators: check if they are not erased by excessive trade wars
Weak opposition: double check!!
Rethuglicans know that Drumpf is a very flawed human being, but they have come to accept him since he burnt his way through the 2016 primaries. The only thing that could stop Drumpf is a squeaky-clean, ultra-modern and brash youthful candidate who can articulate the groundswell of discontent in America as they feel their country slowly become isolated and regress under the captainship of a man who governs by retweeting Fox News at 4AM.
Biden is not it. He is another ‘safe’ WASP candidate, like Hilary. The Dems need a person who can stare Drumpf right in the eyes and say the truths that make him angry enough to launch a series of late night Tweets that betray a very insecure soul.
I actually never checked the models in detail. It may be prudent to check the impact of each variable on the dependent. The researchers modelled their data in the face of the trade war, perhaps this particular variable may have insignificant effect on the dependent. But I must such models have notable flaws
What was a problem for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and what might have been a problem for Biden had he run that year, is now an asset:
Democrats are fine with the idea of a third Obama term. In 2016, when Democrats were confident that Clinton would be their nominee — and when they could not imagine a reality TV host defeating her — millions of them voted to move the party to the left, via a long primary with Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Joe Biden dominated the debate stage and weathered the attacks of nine opponents for the Democratic presidential nomination Wednesday night, emerging the clear winner and standing by his promise to not be “overly polite.” Biden is a better — or at least safer — bet than any of the other candidates getting more than 2 percent in national polls right now. But there’s a way in which he trails off at the end of a sentence or an argument, all the little hiccups en route, the messy seams connecting one thought to the next, the demeanor that falls into a maddening gray area between engaged and fully animated.
It is also important to note his two leading opponents were absent from the stage, that is Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. He clearly remains the candidate who will be tough to beat for the Democratic presidential nomination. This won’t assuage fears of mainstream Democrats that the 76-year-old Biden may not be up to the challenge of a protracted primary fight and bitter battle against President Trump. Still, he was sufficiently engaged to probably maintain his front-runner status entering the critical post-Labor Day political cycle.
Today’s Democrats are exhausted and scared and they miss Obama. As The Post’s own Michael Scherer wrote, Biden actually distanced himself from a trio of Obama policies — family separation, the Afghanistan troop surge and the Trans-Pacific Partnership. (“I would not rejoin the TPP as it was initially put forward,” said Biden, who during the Obama administration supported the TPP as it was initially put forward.)
The newer candidates’ attacks on Obama-era policies were some of the most memorable moments of the week. “It looks like one of us has learned the lessons of the past and one of us hasn’t,” said Julián Castro, who was HUD secretary under Obama, aligning himself perfectly with the current Democratic mood on deportation. “We have tried the solution of Medicare, Medicaid and private insurance,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren the night before, arguing that Medicare-for-all, not patches to Obamacare, would inspire more voters.
But no single policy is as popular with Democrats as Barack Obama is, and the appetite for tearing down the “establishment” candidate has faded since 2016. In that year, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard was a compelling critic of Hillary Clinton’s 2002 vote to authorize the invasion of Iraq. On Wednesday, she punted on a chance to criticize Biden’s vote, turning the question back to the Trump administration’s saber-rattling with Iran. Asked by The Post why she talked about Biden differently, the congresswoman from Hawaii was concise: “Because he apologized.”
Conclusion:
I still think Trump will lose- mainly because he has created his own problems. He is not winning the tariff wars which has mostly hurt farmers, his rural base. He has not gained any new voters from the educated middle class who shun him as he cycles around the White Supremacists
If Trump wins another term, I will move back to Kenya and stay there until he leaves the office.
You are right Natty. Having Biden against Trump will be a repeat of 2016. The same sentiments that prevailed then, will resurface. Forcing a Biden nomination based on polls alone will be a great mistake, when there are other candidates in the filed that can take on Trump head on. For example, Pete Buttigeg and Governor Inslee can make pasta of Trump on stage. In addition, literally all the women candidates on the ticket will run circles around Trump and bust his ego enough that he will get careless. Trump is in many ways like Miguna. You bust his ego and he trips BIGLY
Overall, the democrats should distill their message as the debates go on. They are confusing the electorate on health care and sounding wishy washy on immigration. On the latter, they have failed to articulate that immigration was way better managed under the civil statutes during the Obama era, than with the draconian criminal facets of the law being used by Trump. They have also opted to be civil with Trump. They should start using labels against Trump that stick. There are enough such labels available that could get under Don’s skin: … Involving his history with the draft, his perennial lies, his nasty history with women, his isolating America from the rest of the world, his Hitlerish racism, his chipping away at the foundations of the American economy (via meaningless tarrifs), his numerous failures on delivering on campaign promises, a ballooning federal deficit etc.
The trouble with bullies like Trump is they cannot stand being bullied in return. Democrats must use this approach, and Biden is too classy to get into the gutters with Trump
hehehehe long-shot clown
Trump will beat these clowns hand down unless they change their messaging,
the DEM party candidate will focus on -:
- attacking Trump’s personality(that never worked in 2016),
2.attacking/opposing Trump’s policies about key issues facing US without having a strong convincing ideology on the solutions… this too will fail
The issues of China-US trade imbalance, geopolitics , North-Korea, Iran, Health Care ,Immigration ,climate change will not go away by attacking Trump…
Trump may be what he is, but he is very clear on actions/policies (at lease on camera) he will take, some may not work…
but the population loves a decisive leader not political correctness…
It is not about your feelings. You are just stating your feelings
You seem qualified to be an adviser to one of the primary runners for nomination and ultimately the obvious winner, try it mate
This description is already tragic.
You have got my drift!! Kid gloves off, and Drumpf provides the ammo, not the other way round.
???
Politics is all about swaying voters’ feelings in order to make them vote a particular way.
Been saying this all along but you guys dismissed me. The ‘squad’ took wind out of the the Dems’ sail. One would be forgiven for thinking they were on Trump’s payroll. Pelosi amekunja mkia, it’s like she has already resigned to what was unthinkable a while back. Barring a major major blunder, Trump ni ‘Nne Tena’ saa mbili asubuhi
im not American but if these were the only two choices, I would abstain from casting my ballot. If they put a gun on my head, then I would pick drumf.
The whispers all over are trump will win but turnout will be key he has to energize his base my predictions he will loose the popular vote lakini electoral college ni yake
You guys got jokes. Trump of 2016 did not have a record as a politician. Now he does as an incumbent that he has to overcome. A lot has happened between 2016 and will happen by 2020.
“Desk’s final tally of Pennsylvania’s votes, where Trump won 2,961,875 votes to Clinton’s 2,915,440, a difference of 46,435 votes. Add that to the official results out of Wisconsin, where Clinton lost by 22,177 votes, and Michigan, which she lost by 10,704 votes, and there you have it: 0.057 percent of total voters cost Clinton the presidency.”
Biden was born in Scranton, Pennsylvania. He wins PA and OH, he’s home dry. With Trump’s racist self, that 0.057 that cost Hillary the presidency is not a monumental climb for whomever will be the Democratic nominee. FACT.
It’s still early. This thing will shape up after the Fall, Thanksgiving, Xmas. By the new year it will be clearer. Hold your horses fellas.