The new fuel prices and the new reality

Everything I can read online about the oil refining industry seems to suggest that it is a very low margin biz and needs major volumes to be economic. Essentially if a refinery can’t do 400,000+ barrels per day ni shida. The smaller units are only marginal where they are located close to a major market that is not supplied effectively by other methods… Sasa hii ya Turkana…no close major local market, and faces the challenge in being shipped to markets in the country.

Now, we are building USD18B oil infrastructure for USD10B worth of crude Turkana oil??

Mi naona hiyo njaro ya Wajerumani ya kuzima magari kwa barabara ni poa sana. It’s worth a try. Hiyo Monday yenye ngata itapandishwa, rush hour asubuhi. And every day for the next week.

If the fuel prices keep rising i have no problem

Lakini kweli @introvert this engine has 8 cylinders , 4 Cam shafts and 32valves, si ukipiga rev inakunywa 5litre petroli. Kutoka Nai hadi Msa inakunywa ngapi, honestly

Like in every other investment, we break even and make profits by the sell of the product.

You can’t steal anything of this magnitude without the owner finding out. Tumia comon sense kujijazia alternative…

I agree with this.

Mad fellows. A thousand kilometers of pipeline ni za nini?!

[SIZE=7]Ministry rules out refining crude oil in Mombasa ahead of exports[/SIZE]
Fred Aminga February 1, 2018
2,389 1 minute read

http://www.mediamaxnetwork.co.ke/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Kenya-Pipeline-Corporation.jpg Kenya Pipeline Corporation.

Fred Aminga @faminga
The government has reiterated that it does not plan to use the Kenya Petroleum Refinery Limited (KPRL) facility in Changamwe to refine oil and will instead set up a new one in Lamu.
Energy Cabinet Secretary Charles Keter told the Parliamentary Committee on energy yesterday that the dilapidated facility, which is now fully owned by the government, has been converted into a storage space for the early oil exploration programme.
The oil which is set to be evacuated from the oil fields and exported for testing and sampling will first be stored in the KPRL facility in Changamwe.
“We can’t build a refinery in Mombasa now, we have to focus on Lamu,” he told the committee at Parliament Buildings. The KPRL facility has 45 tanks with a storage capacity of 484 million litres.
The announcement by the Energy CS echoes Ministry of Industry, Trade and Co-operatives Cabinet Secretary Adan Mohamed who had earlier said reviving the KPRL facility for refining purposes will be counterproductive since it was unable to sustain its operations.
Mohamed, however, warned that construction of a new facility will depend on how crude oil produced from Turkana oil fields can be evacuated.
The CS was responding to departmental committee on Trade, Industry and Co-operatives which had asked him to explain plans of reviving dead companies such as the Changamwe’s KPRL, Nzoia Sugar and the Webuye Pan paper company.
Once the new refinery is set up in Lamu, trucks transporting crude oil will cover a distance of over 1,000 kilometres from the remote Turkana fields to the Coast for refining and exportation.
More convenient Total’s recent pledge to work with Kenya to set up an oil pipeline between Lokichar and Lamu could, however, be a faster and more convenient alternative for transporting crude oil.
Petroleum is Kenya’s single biggest import commodity, making up about 14 per cent of the total import bill. Keter also gave the energy committee a raft of measures which his ministry has put in place to avoid power outages in future.
He said he had completed and will commission the Suswa-Athi River Embakasi 220kV line which will provide an alternative path for the flow of power from Olkaria to Nairobi.
Kenya Power is also set to complete a second 220kV transformer at Olkaria in six months’ time. During that time, however, routine line inspection on the 220kV lin will be going on at least twice a month.

We should try to build even if it’s a small refinery in Turkana or Lamu

In other words the STATUS QUO admit we need a refinery lakini afadhali ikuwe 1000 kilometers away from Turkana!!!

The minister concerned even admits very well, 'common sense dictates tujenge refinery but not where it belongs!"

Tutaipeleka Lamu where we can participate in all our criminal endevours to enrich ourselves and pollute the crap out of that ocean! Mtado?!

Oh yeah and you Kenyans, also have to foot the bill for a 1000 KILOMETER PIPELINE!!!

The refinery is better being located along the ocean because when we deplete our oil we can continue using the refinery by importing crude oil and pumping it in, if it was to be built in the hinterland depletion of oil would make it unusable.

I believe there is oil exploration somewhere in the ocean close to lamu, maybe they have one eye on that.

I agree though, lets refine our oil, sell it to the domestic market. It does not make sense to follow the nigeria model where they export crude then import refined products, lets just hope we have enough to fund a refinery and pipelines.

Nilisema in another comment, South Sudan wako tu hapo next door! Mafuta yetu ikiisha juu tunashinda tukiimbiwa vile itaisha haraka as if ni jasho kwa ngozi, hence no need to refine it… ikiisha basi South Sudan hawawezi kosa haja na refinery iko karibu nao. If anything a refinery in Turkana makes perfect sense and you get to save on transport costs involving pipelines.

And furthermore once the president of the land declares that the products are ready, watu watazikujia huko Turkana! That road to Turkana will be financed so fast by willing buyers hata atashangaa. Hata pipeline if the need arises. And thousands and millions of jobs are often created around refineries.

Hehe hio $5 to $15 billion umetoa hapa…

https://www.quora.com/How-much-does-it-cost-to-build-an-oil-refinery-and-how-long-does-it-take-to-build-one

And that’s for a very complex hydrocrackin, fracking refinery unlike Turkana.

But Simiyu get this, the Changamwe refinery was estimated to cost $1.2 billion for a full refurbishment in 2012. Obviously under Jubilee the figure will be inflated 3 times more.

http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/business/Kenya-in-1bn-US-dollars-oil-refinery-plan/2560-1526636-4ae7dt/index.html

That’s 1.2 billion dollars to repair an old thing si ndio?!

Pale Mongolia with the help of India, Mongolia will build a new refinery very soon for get this $1.35 billion U.S. dollars!

Ndio hii article ya Reuters hapa. 1.35 billion dollars. A refinery that can handle a whopping 30,000 barrels a day VS Kenya’s very minute 2000 barrels a day…

Lamu coal plant costs 2billion dollars, a brand new refinery costs 1.35 billion dollars Simiyu and @Mr Black.

https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL4N1TO1TO

AFRICATECH
JUNE 22, 2018 / 5:45 AM / 2 MONTHS AGO
[SIZE=7]Mongolia launches construction of first oil refinery with Indian aid[/SIZE]
Reuters Staff

ULAANBAATAR, June 22 (Reuters) - Mongolia launched construction of its first oil refinery on Friday, a long-awaited project that is funded by India and designed to end the country’s dependence on Russian fuel.
Friday’s ground-breaking ceremony was attended by Mongolian Prime Minister Khurelsukh Ukhnaa and Indian Minister of Home Affairs Rajnath Singh.
The refinery, in southern Dornogovi province will be capable of processing 1.5 million tonnes of crude oil per year, said Mongol Refinery, the state-owned company building the project, in a press release. That is about 30,000 barrels per day (bpd).
The refinery will be small by international standards, with most Chinese facilities each processing hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude per day, and India’s Reliance Industries running one refinery at a record 1.2 million bpd.
Still, Mongolia’s new refinery, planned for completion in late 2022, will meet all of the nation’s demand for gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
“By establishing this strategically important oil refinery, the national economy will become independent from energy imports, and fuel and commodity prices will be stabilised,” said Mongol Refinery in its statement. The project is expected to boost Mongolia’s gross domestic product by 10 percent, it said.
Mongolia imported almost 1.5 million tonnes of oil products last year, virtually all from Russia. They amounted to 18 percent of all Mongolia’s imports, according to official data.
Mongolia, a large landlocked country wedged between giants China and Russia, has a population of just 3 million. Almost half its people live as nomadic stock herders, and the country’s oil demand is growing only very slowly.
“From a national security perspective, we do need to diversify our sources of oil products from the current single source, Russia,” said Munkhdul Badral Bontoi, chief executive of Mongolia-based market intelligence group Cover Mongolia.
The cost of the refinery is estimated at $1.35 billion, and it will include a pipeline and its own power plant.
The refinery will process Mongolia’s own crude oil, which is now sold to China.
Mongolia produced 7.6 million barrels of oil last year, about 21,000 bpd, amounting to 6 percent of its total export earnings. The country’s petroleum industry regulator is expecting its crude oil output to rise over the years prior to the refinery’s start-up.
Mongolia’s big southern neighbour China produces around 3.8 million bpd of crude, and imports more than 9 million bpd, according to official government data.
[SIZE=5]IS IT VIABLE?[/SIZE]
A Mongolian oil refinery has been discussed since 1997, but while several projects were approved, none have been completed.
The refinery’s financing is part of a $1 billion credit line agreement between Mongolia and the Export-Import Bank of India, made during a 2015 visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
“The Indian guarantee is what put the odds in favour of the oil refinery being finally built, but the biggest worry here is whether the oil refinery can pay for itself,” said Munkhdul.
“Economically, I’m sceptical of the viability of a domestic oil refinery, as fuel prices are heavily regulated,” he said.

2015, Nairobi - Malindi with a loaded trailer, 5 adults and a heavy foot, elfu 17.

Shai

Shari.

South Sudan already have an arrangement with Sudan to refine their oil and evacuate it to the international market so no joy there. Anyway i dont care where they build it as long as we refine our own oil, i hope we have enough to justify building the refinery.

Hap

Hapo sawa. Although their output capacity is for a 3 million population. Ours will be for a 50 million. So I would guess a much bigger refinery needed,

Wakiongeza mimi nazima

Thank you and btw that stupidity ndiyo ilifanya Kwame Nkhuruma atolewe mamlakani…among other nonesensical decisions